By: Peter Jančič
Early elections, and the resulting political instability, are being triggered by Nataša Pirc Musar, because after only two weeks she decided that she could not propose anyone for prime minister, as in her assessment no one has a majority.
That she supposedly cannot find a candidate for prime minister was unusual, because at the same time the parties that have governed in recent years publicly claimed that Janez Janša already had a government formed with the right‑wing parties. Even Robert Golob had already declared the forces that might take power from him to be a fraudulent government that would not last long. The day after tomorrow, MPs will be informed of the president’s position, she was required to propose a prime minister within 30 days. So, in just over a week. If no one has a majority for the position of prime minister, the consequence is early elections, and in that case, Robert Golob would remain head of government for some time, at least as acting prime minister.
But it is not certain that Pirc Musar will actually manage to push the country into early elections. Once MPs are informed that, after two weeks, she concluded she could not nominate Robert Golob for another term, because his left‑wing coalition lost the election, and that she sees no one else either, the real post‑election struggle over what voters actually decided will begin. And in that struggle, anything can happen, as Janša also described. The SDS can form its own coalition and prove Pirc Musar wrong after she claimed that no candidate exists who could gather 46 votes. A government could also be formed by someone else, either on the left or the right. Or there could be early elections.
If Janša gathers 46 votes in the next three weeks to be elected prime minister, and secures a majority for his ministers, political instability will end. Such an outcome would be a serious blow to Pirc Musar’s credibility. Her political conviction blinded her to the reality. But if in the second round, when candidates for prime minister can also be proposed by parties and parliamentary groups, no prime minister is elected, the situation will become quite chaotic. And in the third round, when a candidate can be elected with a simple majority, anything may still happen.
That both Robert Golob and Pirc Musar disappeared somewhat over the holidays when it came to the duties they have as statespeople, with the media writing extensively that they were on vacation, was only partly true. When it comes to state money, positions, and power, there are no holidays. And in the next three weeks it will become clear whether Milan Kučan, Zoran Janković, Golob, and Pirc Musar will succeed in breaking apart the emerging right‑wing coalition in order to force early elections at a moment when Golob would still be running the government and all its subsystems. These subsystems – the media, intelligence and police structures, the judiciary, and also the major telecommunications and energy companies that Golob further subordinated over the past four years – are the main reason his side did not lose the recent election even more dramatically. As for the country’s development, Golob’s government will be remembered for projects such as the introduction of long‑term care, which had already been legislated by the previous government and which they managed to launch after four years of delay, without any IT support. With paper and pencils. The result was that nothing really worked, except the collection of large sums of money from people, including pensioners. Yet they successfully promoted themselves in care homes as great benefactors distributing great gifts, gifts paid for by everyone, received by only a few.
If an agreement on the transfer of power is not reached in the coming weeks, the left‑wing parties and Pirc Musar, with the help of their media and other subsystems, will portray Janša and the right as the culprits for instability. And who ends up being blamed for the new instability may significantly influence the outcome of possible early elections. Voters punish those they see as irresponsible. Pirc Musar is not safe here either. Next year’s presidential election will give voters the chance to judge whether she has done enough to help the country, and not just her own political side, after the election.
And is it not possible that by giving up after only two weeks and announcing that she would no longer look for a candidate for prime minister, she herself became the source of instability following an unclear election result, one in which Golob’s coalition decisively lost, while Janša did not achieve a clear majority? Does she want early elections so that the left‑wing parties can retain control over money, deals, and positions?
There have never been early elections immediately after regular elections. But likewise, no president of the republic has ever announced after just two weeks that, in their assessment, no one has a majority to become prime minister, and then gone off on May Day holidays together with the outgoing prime minister. At least on the surface. Because in politics, when the struggle for survival is underway, there are no holidays.