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Monday, November 28, 2022

Who is at the longer lever?

By: Franci Kindlhofer

When, a few days ago, the influential lady of American politics, the third most important woman in the US, Nancy Pelosi visited democratic Taiwan, many saw the world on the brink of a great disaster. Communist China, faithful to its principles, honestly armed itself with weapons and showed its muscles with military manoeuvres to its little sister in the middle of the sea in the east of China.

Did the visit of the brave lady from the USA really threaten world peace? My answer is: no. It rather helped ensure that China’s military threats would remain mere manoeuvres. From experience, we should remember once and for all that dictatorial regimes, especially communist ones, recognise as partners only those whom they fear can cause their own destruction and loss of power. This must be clear to all of us since we are dealing with Russian aggression in Ukraine, which does not come directly from a communist country, but has its causes in the past communist system.

Today we know that all attempts to bring the West together, including participation in NATO, were understood by Putin as our weakness to be exploited. When Putin’s soldiers committed the worst crimes against women in Chechnya, their commander-in-chief was allowed to speak in front of the German parliament and received thunderous applause. Chancellor Schröder even knighted him with the title of pure democrat (lupenreiner Demokrat). Schröder did not have to wait long for his payment. Putin prepared for him a comfortable armchair in the good company of his oligarchs, for the time after the chancellorship, which he still enjoys today.

When Putin started to slander the disobedient Ukraine in the east and even appropriated its territories, all of Europe expressed great astonishment at what he actually dared to do, but no one hit him on the fingers, for the sake of God’s peace in the house. Many thought now was the time to get Putin in a good mood, to make him more sympathetic to us – and fell for his good deals on raw materials. In the negotiations on the solution to the Ukrainian crisis, the notorious liars Putin and Lavrov were believed. Instead of our negotiators demanding a withdrawal from Ukraine and setting deadlines for it, they nodded to the Russians how they, poor people, are threatened by the West and that we should worry about their security, not them. Understandably, Putin saw no reason to compromise on anything and consider Western Europe, which he had always despised anyway, as a KGB agent.

Thus, the hostile invasion of Ukraine took place. Just when the Russians surrounded Ukraine and threatened it, there was still time for politicians, military representatives – and even the Pope – to come to Ukraine from the West and demonstratively show it all its decisive support in defending its freedom. This would be the right signal then, as was the visit of Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan a few days ago.

The luck in the accident is that the West, albeit very late, realised Putin’s true intentions and reacted correctly, but in my opinion, too little and too slowly, after the Russian aggression. Literally: Ukrainians give their lives for us. We must stop Putin. Therefore, all our inconveniences and problems related to the Ukrainian war are the least we have to accept as necessary and inevitable.

In addition to the physical stopping of Russian aggression, Western sanctions against Putin’s Russia will also contribute to peace in every way. Even there, life is becoming more and more difficult and unbearable. Russian monetary reserves will also not be sufficient indefinitely. After one year at the latest, the Russian economy will be over. Typical symptoms from socialist times are already appearing: clinics lack Botox, coffee selection has decreased, paper factories lack paper bleach, meat supply is difficult due to lack of feed additives, Russia can supply the country with poultry meat, but so far it has bought eggs for hatcheries in Western Europe. Dentures, bananas, car parts are missing. The industry lacks bearings, microchips, aircraft parts.

If a large part of the world is engulfed in recession, the prices of oil and gas, which are currently the main source of income for the Russian state, will inevitably fall. According to information from the Ministry of Transport, two thirds of passenger planes are from the West. Unable to import spare parts, they are at risk of having half of these planes on the ground by 2025, needing them for spare parts. It is true that Western Europe imported 46 percent of its gas from Russia, but for Russia this meant 83 percent of its gas exports.

Putin’s recent statements in St. Petersburg that Russian industry will easily compensate for a Western boycott are downright ridiculous since Russia is cut off from all international supply chains. In addition, half a million people had already left Russia, and every second one was an expert in his field. Before the war, 100,000 vehicles were registered in Russia every month, now this number has dropped to 27,000. A thousand Western companies have left Russia. Among them is Siemens, which is a supplier of high-speed trains between Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Sooner or later there will be maintenance issues.

Perhaps this is also a sign of the situation in Russia, that the Russian forces in Ukraine have not conquered a meter of territory for four weeks. On the contrary, quite a bit of the captured territory had to be returned to the original owner, Ukraine.

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