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torek, 18 januarja, 2022

(PUBLIC MEDIA SURVEY) SDS surely leads, SD dominates in KUL, the Povežimo Slovenijo List ties with NSi

By: Nina Žoher / Nova24tv

The latest Parsifal opinion poll reveals that the SDS party is a reliable leader, while the SD party is the one that prevails in KUL. According to the data, the Povežimo Slovenijo List is tied to the coalition NSi.

A survey conducted in 15 voting districts in all 8 constituencies confirms the trends identified by Parsifal (and most other agencies) in its regular monthly analyses. While the support of the SDS in the first place is stable and exceeds the sum of the first and second challengers, the SD took a reliable second place, leaving its KUL supporters far behind. Apparently, the SD managed to win the fight for extreme, radical votes, as on the other hand, the support of the LMŠ and the Levica party has significantly waned.

Among those who will definitely take part in the elections, the majority of respondents would vote for the SDS party (25.4 percent of the vote) if the elections were held this Sunday. The SD party would be in second place with 15.4 percent of the vote, and the LMŠ party in third place with 7.3 percent of the vote. They would be followed by the Levica party with 6.7 percent of the vote, the NSi party with 5.1 percent of the vote, the Povežimo Slovenijo List with 5 percent of the vote and the SAB with 4.3 percent of the vote. 16.1 percent of respondents answered “I do not know,” and 4 percent would not vote for any of the parties.

SDS further increases its lead over the pursuer, Povežimo Slovenijo List is approaching NSi

If we look at the support of political parties among those who will definitely participate in the elections and are decided, we can see that the SDS party would get 32.3 percent of the vote, the second-ranked SD party 19.5 percent of the vote, and the third-ranked LMŠ party 9.3 percent of the vote. The parties would follow in the following order: Levica (8.5 percent of votes), NSi (6.5 percent of votes), Povežimo Slovenijo List (6.3 percent of votes), and SAB (5.4 percent of votes). Other parties would not reach the parliamentary threshold.

Data on support for political parties by individual constituencies among those who will certainly participate in the elections reveal that the SDS party enjoys the most support in the 2nd voting district of the 5th constituency (Celje I), the 6th voting district of the 7th constituency (Maribor II) and in the 7th voting district of the 5th constituency (Velenje I). The SD party enjoys the greatest support in the 10th voting district of the 5th constituency (Hrastnik-Trbovlje) and in the 7th voting district of the 5th constituency (Velenje I). Anyway, in the last voting district it would take second place, behind the SDS. The LMŠ party enjoys the highest support in the 9th voting district of the 5th constituency (Slovenj Gradec), where it would share second place with the SD party.

Data on those who would certainly participate in the elections and are decided reveal that the SDS enjoys the most support in the 6th voting district of the 7th constituency (Maribor II), followed by the 2nd voting district of the 5th constituency (Celje I) and 5 voting district of the 4th constituency (Ljubljana Moste). The SD party enjoys the greatest support in the 10th voting district of the 5th constituency (Hrastnik-Trbovlje), where it would occupy the 1st place among the parties. In the 7th voting district of the 5th constituency (Velenje I), where it also enjoys high support, it would be ranked 2nd, behind the SDS. LMŠ enjoys the highest support in the 9th voting district of the 5th constituency (Slovenj Gradec), where it would share second places together with the SD party.

As we can see, the SDS party continues to more than obviously enjoy stable support, namely exceeding the sum of the first and second challengers. The SD party is clearly in the lead in the ranks of KUL, as it has left its partners significantly behind. Given that the support of the LMŠ and Levica parties decreased, it is obvious that radical votes went in the direction of the SD party. However, the question arises as to whether the SD can reach a higher level with this radical policy after this stage victory, as it discourages more moderate voters on the left with its extreme views. The results of this poll also call on the background of the transitional left to form at least one more list with the potential to cross the parliamentary threshold.

Association of parties Povežimo Slovenijo and NSi appear in third place out of 15 voting districts three times

The poll also confirms the growing support for the association Povežimo Slovenijo, which has almost identical support as the NSi and is in third place three times out of 15 voting districts, just like the NSi. The rise of this new political alliance also strongly tilts the majority in favour of the center-right coalition. However, there is still a lot of free space in the work of the electorate, which is looking for a representative in the non-ideological part of the center-left, so given the announced continuation of connections between SMC and GAS and the Zeleni, the Povežimo Slovenijo movement will probably not be the last positive surprise of the upcoming election year.

The public opinion poll was conducted in the period from September 20th to November 4th, 2021 among the adult population of the Republic of Slovenia. The realised sample was different by individual voting districts, a total of 4894 respondents were included. More detailed data by districts can be seen in the attached table. The present research is of a quantitative type and the data collection for it was based on a telephone survey via mobile phones, which is automated according to the principles of CATI (Computer Aided Telephone Interviews).

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