On February 1st, 2020, the online newspaper published an analysis of the results of measurements that dramatically deviate from the election results, which, in the opinion of the author Peter Jančič, is not necessarily the case. Because the interviewers of the same agencies are again manipulating the percentages of Robert Golob and are otherwise measuring the “non-left” Povežimo Slovenijo movement, we are once again publishing a very good presentation when the author proves the irregularities.
Prime Minister Marjan Šarec (LMŠ) called for preliminary elections on Monday when the government resigned. The president of the party with by far the most MPs, Janez Janša (SDS), also assessed that preliminary elections are the best of possibilities, but he can also prevent them by taking over the government if he finds enough partners.
How it unfolds will depend on estimates of what preliminary elections can bring, but where the results of public opinion polls are unreliable. Namely, there is a high probability that they are a means of shaping public opinion and not measuring. On top of that, public opinion can also change rapidly.
WHEN THE SDS JUMPS, THE SMC AND SD THUNDER
This is shown by data from the time before the previous elections to the National Assembly, when after the first months of 2018 led by SD Dejan Židan and LMŠ Marjan Šarec, and just before the elections there was an incredible turnaround when the SDS jumped to the top, namely it was suddenly elected by more voters than LMŠ and SD combined. Compared to the results of the polls in the first months of the year, the SDS achieved the highest result in the elections, while the SD and the LMŠ achieved the lowest.
Significantly more voters voted for SDS than for SD and LMŠ combined:
The SDS campaign was not carried out so brilliantly, and Šarec and Židan did not mess them up so dramatically. This unusual event, when the elections were denied by public opinion polls, is shown in the graph:
The situation currently shown by public opinion polls in recent months is seemingly favourable for Šarec’s LMŠ, namely the polls show a similar result as at the beginning of 2018. The SDS is higher. But the high proportions of LMŠ, as shown by the 2018 elections, can also shrink very quickly. Generally, this does not happen with the SDS. Perhaps the reason for this is also that there are concrete candidates on the ballots in the districts around the country and they do not always convince the voters in the same way as party leaders.
The data for the last months according to Ninamedia and Mediana are as follows:
In January, different agencies showed quite different results. According to Parsifal for Nova24TV, Janša’s SDS was ahead of Šarec’s LMŠ. The reverse order was shown by Mediana and Ninamedia. Ninamedia is no longer broadcasting the results on public television. They are looking for a new measure of customer power. This week, Nova24TV, with the help of the Parsifal agency, published the results of an additional measurement, according to which it is again at the top of the SDS before the LMŠ.
JANKOVIĆ’S NINAMEDIA
The results of measurements that dramatically deviate from the election results are not necessarily accidental. Last year, I revealed about Ninamedia that Nikola Damjanić, who had been on the RTV Slovenia programming council in the past at the suggestion of Zoran Janković’s Positive Slovenia (PS), had returned to ownership in the middle of the year. When Damjanić was a programme councillor, Ninamedia won the research deal, although the law prohibits programme councillors from doing business to prevent corruption. Before the first transfer from RTV to his agency, Damjanić withdrew from the ownership and management of Ninamedia. Until last year, when he returned. The Erar application shows that the main financier of Ninamedia from public funds is the municipality of Ljubljana with related companies. The Municipality of Ljubljana is led by Zoran Janković (PS). Marjan Šarec (LMŠ) was once in this party.
You can read more about this here: SUSPECT OF CORRUPTION ON TVS: DAMJANIĆ’S OR JANKOVIĆ’S NINAMEDIA?
The results of Ninamedia are still being published by the merging newspapers Dnevnik and Večer. A more detailed comparison of the results of the three surveys published in January is as follows:
In all the comparisons and graphs they show, I recalculated the data of public opinion polls published by the media so that only party-defined voters are considered. This allows for a comparison between polls and elections, where only defined votes count.
Source: Spletni časopis.eu