By: Vida Kocjan
The 2025 report of the Fiscal Council of the Republic of Slovenia is a clear and critical document on how the outgoing government of Robert Golob systematically loosened public finances during a relatively stable period (without major crises apart from the floods).
The general government deficit increased by more than 2.5 percentage points of GDP (from around –0.9 percent in 2024 to –2.5 percent in 2025). The main cause is the explosive growth of current expenditures: changes to the public‑sector pay system, the winter bonus, rising public‑sector employment, and higher social benefits. The fiscal room for manoeuvre accumulated in previous years was largely spent.
The new government of Janez Janša is therefore inheriting depleted reserves and a structurally weakened position. Instead of building fiscal buffers and implementing structural reforms during good years, the previous team permanently raised the level of current spending. This means a persistently higher baseline of wages, pensions, and transfers, which will continue to put pressure on the budget for a long time. The pension reform is a step forward for long‑term sustainability, but it does not resolve short‑ and medium‑term risks. The deviation from the 2025–2028 medium‑term fiscal‑structural plan is evident.
The Fiscal Council assesses that fiscal policy in 2025 was inappropriate – overly expansionary, inefficient, and pro‑cyclical. Pre‑election giveaways (higher wages and social benefits) were financed at the expense of the future. The results are limited fiscal space, the risk of exceeding the 3‑percent deficit threshold, higher borrowing costs, and pressure from the EU.
The new government is thus taking over a situation of weakened fiscal discipline. Without immediate measures – expenditure reviews, limiting the growth of current spending, more efficient investments, and credible medium‑term planning – a spiral of higher debt and reduced room for development and social security in future shocks looms.
The legacy of the previous government is a serious warning: a squandered window of opportunity for fiscal consolidation. Sustainable public finances are not an ideology but a fundamental precondition for any serious welfare policy. The era of Golob‑style illusions has run out. It would not have lasted much longer anyway. Things simply could not continue as they were.