By: Gašper Blažič
When U.S. President Donald Trump made it clear that Europe could not rely on the U.S. military machine forever, it caused a stir. After the termination of development aid to leftist NGOs from the USAID fund, not only Brussels but also the Slovenian government found itself in an awkward position.
In recent days, SDS leader Janez Janša has repeatedly addressed the Slovenian and European public regarding the situation in Ukraine and the inconsistencies in European policy, which, in his view, still has significant financial reserves for defence. The same applies to Slovenia. However, Prime Minister Robert Golob finds himself in a difficult situation because his coalition includes the “pacifist” Levica party, which opposes Slovenia’s NATO membership, while the SD party seem uncertain about their stance. One thing is clear: reallocating funds from the green transition without significant risk will be difficult, as it could provoke protests from Jenull’s “bicycle activists” once again. Perhaps that is why the government has partially restricted its press conferences, which are no longer accessible via Zoom due to a “serious malfunction”.
Macron takes a strong stance
Looking back at last week’s events, after U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s “wake-up call” to European politicians, SDS leader Janez Janša also emphasised the urgency of new priorities for the European Union. Interestingly, the response came swiftly. On the eve of the EU summit, French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a significant speech in which he even mentioned the possibility of deploying French troops to Ukraine. He also issued strong statements against Russia, despite some historical alliances between the two nations. “The Russian threat exists and affects us all. Who can believe they will stop at Ukraine?” Macron stated, showing a more conciliatory approach toward Trump. Clearly, one of Europe’s most influential political leaders has realised the seriousness of the situation, even suggesting that Europe must be prepared for the scenario in which the U.S. is no longer “on our side”. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also responded, announcing potential loans to strengthen EU member states’ defence. While one swallow does not make a summer, this is a promising start. So far, the EU has failed to develop a defence alliance that could rival NATO.
Delaying commitments into the future
The new U.S. policy and the EU’s response to it have already backed Prime Minister Robert Golob into a corner. He previously ensured that Slovenia would waste four million taxpayer euros by cancelling a signed contract for the purchase of Boxer armoured vehicles, only to start negotiations – ironically – for the infamous Patria armoured vehicles at a significantly higher price than when Janša’s first government considered the purchase two decades ago. Because of the Patria deal, Janez Janša was later convicted and imprisoned. However, the Patria deal was merely a pretext, as underlying it were also retaliatory motives from those involved in transactions with Sistemska Tehnika. Now, Prime Minister Robert Golob finds himself wriggling like an amoeba before both the European and Slovenian public, having to be extremely cautious with his words. Ahead of last week’s EU summit, he announced that Slovenia would prepare a plan for increased defence spending by the NATO summit in late June in The Hague. Before that, the government will present the plan to both parliament and the public. According to the Ministry of Defence, led since last year by the former leader of the Gibanje Svoboda’s parliamentary group, veterinarian Borut Sajovic, defence spending for this year was estimated at 1.53% of GDP as of the end of last year, with a projected increase to 1.6% by 2026.
Between U.S. pressure and Levica’s opposition
This remains far from the 2% target, which Slovenia, under Golob’s plan, would reach only by 2030. Trump’s security adviser, Mike Waltz, made it clear via X that this is unacceptable. But Waltz is no ordinary figure: since last year, he has been a member of the U.S. Congress, a former officer in the U.S. Special Forces, and, after Trump’s arrival in the White House, a national security advisor. It is clear that Golob does not want to make any promises, as almost every such commitment draws criticism not only from Levica but also from virtually the entire media landscape. For example, the television programme Tarča invited not one but two representatives of Levica – Matej T. Vatovec and the “breakaway” Miha Kordiš (since “depoliticised” RTV apparently provides him with free publicity). Host Erika Žnidaršič opened the discussion with a question about the bizarre proposal from Zoran Stevanović’s party, Resni.ca, which, like Levica, is seen as aligned with Moscow’s interests. The proposal suggested holding a referendum on whether Slovenia should even fulfil its long-standing but repeatedly violated commitment to allocate 2% of GDP to defence. However, Slovenia already held a referendum on NATO membership shortly before joining, and the majority at the time supported entry into the alliance.
NATO summit expected to reach 3.5% of GDP
At a press conference on Thursday, March 6th, SDS President Janez Janša emphasised the need to increase defence spending earlier and to a significantly higher level than the current 2% of GDP. “This is a distant promise that the left-wing government always makes so that they do not have to do anything this year or next,” Janša criticised. Past practice also shows that previously announced deadlines and commitments regarding defence funding have almost never been realised. “According to my information, a significantly higher share is being prepared for the NATO summit this June – 3 or 3.5% – and the deadline for its implementation will be much sooner than 2030. If we look at the reason for the current panic and why everyone is now deciding to increase armament spending, it is clear to me that this reason exists today, not in 2030. In military terms, the threat is immediate, not just potential,” Janša explained. He also warned that additional defence funds should not come at the expense of the existing way of life in the Western world. “More than money and, consequently, the weapons we buy with it, the most important factor in a country’s defence is the willingness of its people to defend it. Because if there are no people willing to defend something, then neither money, nor the state, nor weapons will be of any help,” he pointed out.
Government should review tenders for “green transition” and gender equality
Janša also pointed out that there are budget reserves that could immediately increase defence funding in both Slovenia and the EU. However, the main issue is not so much the funding itself but the inefficiency in building a defence system. “They are producing five or six different weapons systems for the same purpose, which leads to more expensive production, higher maintenance costs, and lower efficiency in use. Meanwhile, countries like the U.S., China, or the Russian Federation have only one or two weapons systems for the same purpose, which significantly reduces production, consumption, and maintenance costs,” recalled the former Slovenian defence minister from the independence era. “The first thing we advise the government to do is review all tenders that ministries have on the table for various studies – on gender studies, inclusion research, and the authorisation of NGOs,” he stated. If these funds were redirected to the defence budget, Janša estimates that Slovenia would secure a substantial amount of money to significantly strengthen its army. In addition to reallocating funds from the green transition, he also sees potential savings in reducing the size of the core state administration. Specifically, he criticised the number of employees at the Ministry of Solidary Future. Now, it is up to the Prime Minister, but the question remains whether he will dare to take the risk.
Not just Ukraine, but also Bosnia and Herzegovina!
After the highest-ranking official of Bosnian Serbs, Milorad Dodik, was convicted for disregarding the decisions of the High Representative of the international community in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), the authorities of Republika Srpska began escalating tensions. Under the Dayton Agreement, Republika Srpska is one of two entities within BiH, the other being the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, the leadership of Republika Srpska disregards this and aims to suspend the authority of BiH’s central institutions within its territory, which is constitutionally problematic and could lead to a new armed conflict. It seems that Dodik feels emboldened by strong support from Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin. However, we must not forget that in the past, even the Americans – particularly the far-left wing of the Democratic Party – have supported such lawlessness. During Barack Obama’s presidency, the U.S. provided very weak support to Ukraine when pro-Russian separatists began seizing its territory. Despite the fact that the 1994 Budapest Memorandum guaranteed Ukraine’s territorial integrity in exchange for its renunciation of nuclear weapons (Ukraine had inherited so much nuclear weaponry after the Soviet Union’s collapse that it was the world’s third-largest nuclear power at the time), the U.S. administration argued that the memorandum did not provide security guarantees in case of violations. Meanwhile, Putin claimed that the present-day Ukraine has nothing to do with the memorandum because it is an entirely new state. Regardless, Bosnia and Herzegovina is once again becoming a powder keg after thirty years – with Putin in the background.
It is also worth remembering that in the early 1990s, Ukraine contributed a large number of troops to the United Nations’ Blue Helmets, who were active during the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina.