By: Mitja Iršič
The chaos that arose due to the free day designated for flood recovery on August 14th highlights the improvisational nature of the current government. It seems as if the government and the coalition are merely catering to the fleeting impulses of the Prime Minister – a person who has become so enamoured with media immunity that he has started believing in his own infallibility. We have seen this awkward political dance before: Golob says something appealing but foolish, difficult to implement, and economically harmful. Then, the ministers and the parliamentary coalition majority work to cover it up, with significant help from the media. This dance is sometimes amusing, at times slightly pathetic, but ultimately it has consequences. Not for Golob, nor for the coalition, but for us, the ordinary citizens.
We have experienced this before with the promise of a “happy ending” for workers in the justice system. And when Golob, carried away by public enthusiasm for firefighters, individually promised cash rewards. While the previous government relied on broad, politically, and professionally diverse advisory bodies, the current government is more reminiscent of Belarus. There, Alexander Lukashenko says that playing hockey is a good remedy against the coronavirus disease, followed by the Ministry of Health stating that cold indeed strengthens the immune system. On television, the president’s words are supported by a member of the national health council, who anecdotally claims that northern populations get sick less than southern ones. Any resemblance to the advice from the Slovenian prime minister that COVID is treated with water and sunlight is purely coincidental.
Such is the nature of governance in countries with a strict vertical structure, where the entire political landscape hinges on the whims of a single politician. Historically, a symbol of this kind of rule was Nero – an absolutist, emotionally unstable ruler with exceedingly low intelligence and impulsive decisions, under whom the Roman Empire nearly experienced its (first) collapse. Enlightened authoritarians have been exceedingly rare throughout history. Perhaps the only one was Singaporean leader Lee Kuan Yew, who with a draconian yet economically audacious approach transformed Singapore from a fishing village on the tip of the Malaysian peninsula into a global financial centre.
After a year of the current coalition’s governance, it is clear that Robert Golob is much closer to Lukashenko than to Lee. The impulsiveness of his leadership has taken Slovenia on a wild roller coaster ride, from a success story during the pandemic to a country grappling with above-average inflation, economic stagnation, high taxes, and yet, on top of it all, a high deficit. So far, Golob has not encountered any serious global upheavals – when he assumed power, the war in Ukraine was already taking on the shape of a lasting conflict, and energy prices were showing signs of stabilisation.
Now he is facing his first serious challenge – Slovenia has been hit by floods worse than ever in its history. And it seems he will rule as he is accustomed to – with impulsiveness, quick words, pleasing yet unachievable promises, and above all, a marked operational incapability. One day he is talking about building prefabricated houses within a few months, and the next, when someone apparently whispers to him about the impracticality of such a project, he states that nothing can happen in a few days, and he does not know if they can actually achieve it. One day he is talking about damages of 500 million euros, the next day it is two billion, and on the third day (without proper figures), he is suggesting that they will compensate local municipalities for the damage using our money. As a political novice, he seems oblivious to the fact that this will cause true accounting and bureaucratic chaos, where nobody will know who is paying and who is receiving, and the possibility of a haze of emergency conditions – a fertile ground for corruption – will be even greater. He does not even realise that such plans should not be made without a very precise assessment of the damage. Such Top Gun-like behaviour is suitable for some populist politician from either extreme of the political spectrum, but not for the Prime Minister. When such a person is in power, the environment becomes entirely unpredictable for both the economy and the citizens. Just as Russians (quietly) wonder what Vladimir will do tomorrow, the average Slovenian citizen asks the same about Robert. Entrepreneurs are asking the same questions too. A predictable business environment is the core of a successful economy, and a successful economy is the first condition for the freedom and prosperity of a nation. That is not and will not be the case with Robert Golob at the helm. Robert Golob has many interesting qualities – predictability is not one of them.