By: Dr Metod Berlec
With 99.98 percent of the votes counted, the gap between the leading parties, the Freedom Movement (GS) and SDS, currently stands at 7,951 votes. In addition to the Freedom Movement and SDS, the parties NSi, SLS and Fokus, SD, the Democrats, the Levica and Vesna, as well as Resni.ca, have entered parliament. A total of 1,166,438 valid ballots were cast out of 1,695,220 eligible voters. Voter turnout was 69.45 percent. Final results will only be available after the votes cast by mail from abroad and at diplomatic‑consular missions are counted next week. However, the votes from abroad will have virtually no impact on the final outcome, as there are too few of them.
However, the fact that numerous irregularities occurred during the election may still have an impact, as SDS has been strongly warning. The party has submitted objections to the electoral commissions of seven electoral districts, citing irregularities in the work of electoral bodies during the parliamentary elections. They propose that the results of early voting at 24 polling stations not be taken into account, and that voting at three Sunday polling stations be repeated. The Democrats have filed complaints regarding the work of the commissions in the 4th and 7th electoral districts. If the early‑voting results from the 24 polling stations were excluded, SDS would win.
Comparing the 2022 and 2026 election results, we see a significant decline in support for the governing coalition parties GS, SD and Levica, and a strengthening of the centre‑right parties led by SDS. In 2022, the Freedom Movement under Robert Golob received 410,769 votes (34.45% and 41 seats), while this time it received 333,941 votes (28.63% and 29 seats). In 2022, SD received 79,709 votes (6.69% and 7 seats), this time 78,294 votes (6.71% and 6 seats). In 2022, Levica received 53,234 votes (4.46% and 5 seats), while this time, together with Vesna, it received 65,073 votes (5.58% and 5 seats). The governing left‑wing coalition won 53 seats in 2022, but this time 13 fewer, only 40. They are six seats short of an absolute majority.
On the other side, the largest opposition party SDS received 279,897 votes in 2022 (23.48% and 27 seats), and this time 325,990 votes (27.95% and 28 seats). This means SDS under Janez Janša gained more than 46,000 additional votes, the most in its political history. New Slovenia received 81,794 votes in 2022 (6.86% and 8 seats), and this time, together with SLS and Fokus of Marko Lotrič, 108,379 votes (9.29% and 9 seats). The cooperation with smaller parliamentary parties clearly paid off, as otherwise the centre‑right would have lost several percentage points. The Democrats of Anže Logar received 78,028 votes (6.69% and 6 seats), and the party Resni.ca 64,371 votes (5.52% and 5 seats). This means SDS together with NSi, SLS and Fokus holds 37 seats, and if the Democrats were added, potentially 43.
Such a fragmented parliament means that forming a new government will be extremely difficult. Neither the left coalition nor the centre‑right parties have enough seats for a majority, so both sides will inevitably depend on the two new parliamentary actors – the Democrats and Resni.ca. Both parties have centre‑right economic programmes, but at the same time maintain significant distance from both Golob and Janša. In both cases, entering a left‑leaning government could trigger internal tensions or even a split. Golob will certainly receive the first opportunity to form a government, but whether he will succeed is another question.
