By: Nova24tv
“If Ukraine falls, then Moldova will be next, and then probably Georgia. Something may be brewing in the Western Balkans. That is, wherever the periphery of the European Union is not yet in touch. And in NATO. Then it is almost certainly the turn of the Baltic states and then we are on the brink of a serious conflict that could lead to World War III,” said Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša in an exclusive interview with Siol, Planet TV and Nova24tv.
“Whether Ukraine will defend itself or not is important for Slovenia, Europe, the whole world. If Ukraine endures, then we can count that there will be no escalation, but negotiations,” said Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša. According to him, this is the only way to regain at least some of the medium-term establishment of the world as we have known it in the last decades since the end of the Cold War.
So, the future of Europe is being decided in Ukraine, perhaps even more so. “Therefore, the war in Ukraine is not something far away from us, something insignificant, in which we must not interfere, and we must bury our heads in the sand,” said Janša and emphasised that we must be aware that it is not much further from our borders to Ukraine than from Slovenia to Belgrade.
“We are lucky to be by the Adriatic Sea and not by the Black Sea. That we are already in NATO, that we are already in the European Union. That we are not where the Ukrainians, Georgians and Moldovans are,” warned Janša, who hopes that no one wants a new Cold War, a new world where we will give five times more for armaments, for our own security. “Where some nations will again be seen as enemies. Now, the Ukrainians are also fighting for us,” emphasised Janša.
Slovenia is in good shape
“In the last two years, we have provided a good basis for Slovenia’s resilience to such a situation,” said Janša. According to him, Slovenia has already done its work for this year in terms of providing liquidity and loans needed for this liquidity. “So, we have guaranteed liquidity, under the conditions that have been in place so far. The Ukrainian crisis will affect financial markets and interest rates. Sanctions packages will greatly change the international financial environment, and it is very good that we have reserves with which we can mitigate the economic consequences of the loss of trade with Russia and Ukraine,” said Janša.
Why Putin’s war in Ukraine is not going according to plan
“The key thing that has made Putin’s strategy fail, at least for now, is that Ukrainians have support and feel it. To know that they are not alone. To know that they belong to a world where nations have the right to decide their own destiny,” said Janša, who sees Ukraine’s added motivation to resist the Russians in joining the European Union.
“Hope that you know you are not alone is more important at this point than weapons. Weapons are also needed; any help is needed. The message that they are part of the free world, that we recognise their right to decide their own destiny, that we condemn Russian aggression against Ukraine, is very strong,” said Janša, who is in daily contact with Ukrainian leaders.
“They tell me that the fact that they are not forgotten that a large part of the world is behind them, is crucial at the moment,” explained Janša, emphasising once again: “Ukrainians are fighting for us too, and therefore we help them as much as we can. We also take care of our safety. It is about what kind of Europe we will live in in the next 10 or 20 years.”
Beijing’s support for Putin’s ambitions
“Since the debacle in Afghanistan, some of the moves made by Beijing and Moscow have been coordinated,” said Janša, who is convinced that Putin would not have made these moves to Ukraine without China’s tacit consent. The latter also abstained in the United Nations Security Council yesterday in condemning Russian aggression.
“I think for the first time since it was a member of the Security Council, it sided with Russia when it condemned sanctions against Russia, not the invasion itself. This is not a neutral policy,” warned Janša. Even if we look at military cooperation between the two countries over the last ten years, it is something different than we know from previous decades. “The development of hypersonic missiles that have changed the dominance of the West and the US is clearly a joint project of Russia and China. Let’s not be surprised if the next target is Taiwan,” emphasised Janša. Taiwan is on the other side of the world, but the country is also very important for Slovenia. Half of the semiconductors come from factories in Taiwan. “If China secures dominance over this production, then some difficult years will pass. We will probably look for old smartphones in the drawers, because there will be no new ones,” Janša sees potential problems.
Will it explode in BiH as well?
“Currently, there is no danger that the Republika Srpska will secede from BiH. However, it can happen,” said Janša, who emphasised that it is not just about BiH. There are still unresolved issues between Serbia and Kosovo, and the internal political situation in Montenegro is also complicated. “This part of the Balkans, which is not yet in the European Union, is a potential prey to Putin’s aspirations. However, Putin can only provoke some conflicts and unrest with the goal of Europe dealing with the Balkans while Russia is dealing with the Eastern Neighbourhood. This cannot be ruled out, which is why the EU has also strengthened its military presence in BiH,” emphasised Janša.
So, if Ukraine falls, then Moldova is next, and then Georgia, the Western Balkans and then the Baltic states. “These are very serious things. We have not heard anything like Putin’s last appearances since the 1930s. It is this rumour that says a nation of 40 million has no historical right to exist. Who gave him this right to endanger tens of millions of lives?” wondered Janša and pointed out that the Western world has lived in the last decades in the belief that such times are behind us. That this is only in history textbooks or in parts of the world that are far away.
“It is in the interest of the Russians to elect a new leader”
“Slovenia’s and Europe’s partial energy dependence on Russian energy is a strategic problem,” said Janša. According to him, there would not be much if this dependence did not exist. “When we talk about the exposure of the Slovenian economy to Russia, we must know that other countries are much more exposed. Some countries are 100% dependent on the supply of Russian natural gas, others on the supply of oil, and some even on Russian coal,” warned Janša.
In his opinion, Germany’s decision to freeze Nord Stream 2 is 10 times more painful compared to what Slovenia may lose due to sanctions. “Germany has agreed to this; however, it is still being criticised. We sometimes do not understand what this exposure means in the case of some countries, not only as an economic, but also a political and social factor,” emphasised Janša. He believes that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has finally encouraged Europe to free itself from energy dependence on Russia.
“That was Putin’s huge mistake,” said Janša. Slovenia and Europe will have problems due to the transition for a few years, but Russia will lose a huge market. “If there is no end to the war soon, a new Iron Curtain will be set up. The price of this will be high for Slovenia and the EU, but for the Russian nation the price will be terrible,” said Janša, adding: “It is in the interest of Russians to choose a new leader who will not endanger others and the future of their own nation.”
Slovenia will accept refugees
Slovenia is ready for the arrival of refugees from Ukraine. “However, I believe that the pessimistic estimates that half of Ukrainians will leave their homeland are not true. If Ukraine endures and defends itself, refugees who have already fled the war will be able to return home,” Janša said.
The first asylum applications in Slovenia have already been submitted. “Slovenia has the capacity to receive refugees. I also see the readiness of Slovenian families to help refugees directly. Just like what is happening all over Eastern Europe, where families are helping families,” said Janša.