4th wave at the door: The Jožef Štefan Institute advises vaccination for at least all those over 40 years of age as soon as possible

By: Luka Perš (Nova24tv)

If we want to limit the fourth wave of the covid-19 epidemic and prevent the burden on hospitals, it is recommended that at least everyone over the age of 40 be vaccinated as soon as possible, thus protecting themselves from a more severe course of the disease. The desired vaccination of the adult population is over 90 percent; the Jožef Štefan Institute wrote.

The scale of the epidemic is increasing, even though we are at the peak of the holiday season, they recalled. During this period, it declined last year. They warned that if we do not vaccinate enough people in time, then in the case of non-tightening of measures we will exceed the number admitted in hospitals in the 2^nd wave in autumn. The estimated local reproductive number, which represents the number of persons infected on average by an individual infected person in Slovenia, is approximately 1.05. It is not enough for this epidemic number to be less than one for the epidemic to decline, because we also import infections.

Meanwhile, the estimated effective reproductive number, where imported infections are treated as if they were caused by local infection in Slovenia, is approximately 1.25. An epidemic declines when that number is less than one. According to the current assessment, there are 15 confirmed infections on a daily basis. The occupancy of hospital facilities is slowly increasing, as is the daily admission to hospitals.

Now every 1500 inhabitant of Slovenia is infected

In the first wave of the epidemic, about one in a hundred people became infected. At the peak of the first wave, the proportion of contagious was about 0.2 percent of the population, or about every 500^th inhabitant. In the second and third waves, about a third of the population has been infected so far. The proportion of contagious is currently about 0.07 percent of the population or about every 5000^th inhabitant.

In the samples, the proportion of the delta version is close to 100 percent because this version of the new coronavirus is about 50 percent more contagious than the alpha version. The reason is also imports from countries with a high proportion of this version of the virus, according to the institute.