By Álvaro Peñas
Interview with Vladyslav Kovalchuk, Intermarium Support Group co-coordinator and political analyst, Master’s degree in Security Studies from Maria Curie-Skłodowska University in Lublin.
What do you think is going to happen in Ukraine in the coming weeks, and do you think a Russian invasion as repeatedly announced in many Western media is feasible?
As it is known, Russia has been moving its troops to Ukrainian border in what is considered to be a preparation for full-scale intervention to Ukraine. Currently, embassies of 22 states have already recommended their citizens to leave Ukraine or postpone their trip to Kyiv or other cities. Australian, Canadian and US embassies decided to evacuate their staff to Lviv. Such measures aimed at reducing the risks connected with the threat of the escalation.
I think there is an explanation to this kind of behavior. When Afghan crisis started there was a chaos connected with evacuation of those people who worked for Americans and NATO and diplomatic staff as well. It was a reason for a devastating criticism of Biden Administration.
The reason why the USA and other countries decided to reduce their diplomatic personnel in Ukraine can be defined as an attempt to reduce the risks for life of its citizens and avoid something similar to Afghanistan situation. This step can be both preventive measure and preparation to the worst scenario.
Nevertheless, we should read between the lines and try to understand true motives of Moscow and Vladimir Putin. If Russia wanted to incorporate Donbas to the Russian Federation, Putin would have done it at the very beginning of the war in 2014. Full-scale intervention is very costly for Russian military budget. According to the report known as “Putin War”, first 10 months of Russian aggression in Donbas costed Russia one billion dollars in direct military costs, 1,5 billion for the refugees who moved from Ukraine to Russia, and 55 billion in eonomic losses caused by sanctions and inflation.
The report was initiated by Russian political opponent Boris Nemtsov who was killed in Moscow before the report was finished. Donbas is a very effective tool to affect Ukrainian authorities because society does not agree on negotiations with Russian-backed militants while Russia tries to impose these negotiations and achieve international and Ukrainian recognition of the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics.
In the same time, Germany and France want to restart EU-Russian relations and try to force Ukrainian government to implement Steinmeier formula which includes amnesty for terrorists, conducting elections, the right to have political autonomy, their own militia and courts and the right to be elected to Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament).
What would it mean for Ukraine to accept this formula?
Signing Steinmeier formula will allow Russia to block any strategic decision connected with the European integration or NATO membership. Taking into consideration last statements of Russia, they are more afraid of Ukrainian membership in NATO than joining the EU. If Ukraine accepts this formula then Russia will be able to start negotiations about canceling economic sanctions. For Ukraine it would mean not being able to conduct an independent foreign policy.
In the event of a confrontation, is the Ukrainian army prepared to deal with a Russian attack?
Yes, for sure. In 2014, there was much worse situation due to the Dignity Revolution and the controlled systematic destruction of our army and police by former president Victor Yanukovych. All the people were focused on overthrowing Yanukovych who gave the order to shoot people in the center of capital city. Nevertheless, Kremlin architects of so called “Russian spring” did not take into account such a factor as volunteer battalions who were first people who stopped Russian provocateurs and mercenaries in Ukrainian cities. They created the first partisan squads in 2014 without military experience and enough weaponry. First of all, I mean the Azov regiment, and the Donbas and Aydar battalions.
Today, for example, the Azov regiment it is the elite SOF unit with vast military experience and a good track record of successful military operations. We should expect the escalation but not full-scale intervention of Russian army because Moscow is not interested in new hostilities, it is interested in diplomatic concessions of Ukraine.
For last two months, veterans have also been conducting military trainings throughout Ukraine in order to teach people how to act if Russia attacks. Summing up, I can say that Russia will face with not only Ukrainian Armed Forces but with well-trained civil resistance movement as well.
Putin has pointed out that the source of this conflict is Ukraine’s NATO membership. However, Ukraine applied for NATO membership in 2008 and so far, when it is receiving armaments, it has got nothing but words. What is the real cause of the conflict? What does Russia really want?
In 2007, during the Munich Security Conference, Putin said that Russia does not recognize existing world order and will make everything in order to go back to an independent foreign policy. Unfortunately, Putin’s speech was not taken seriously due to belief in Russian democratic experiment which the West tried to implement after the end of the Cold War. This belief was one of the biggest mistakes of European and US foreign policy. The West has been considering Putin an equal partner despite such facts as assassination of Anna Politkovskaya and Alexander Litvinenko in 2006. The interval between two assassinations is less than two months.
Munich speech of Vladimir Putin was a kind of warning signal for democratic world which unfortunately was neglected. On August 1, 2008 Russia attacked Georgia and occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These territories became a tool to keep Georgia away from NATO membership. NATO is a defense union which is not interested in direct confrontation with Russia. That is why NATO does not accept countries which have active territorial disputes with their neighbors. As for Ukraine, this conflict has not started in 2014. Ukraine it is a unitary state but Crimea was the only one part of Ukraine to which authorities granted the autonomy after declaring independence in 1991. In 1997, Ukraine and Russia signed the agreement about renting military base in Sevastopol where Russian Black Sea Fleet was deployed.
The title of this document is The Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet. In 2014, Russian Black Sea fleet took active part in the annexation of Crimea. Even if we imagine that Ukraine could have avoided the war it would not have significantly change the situation. NATO, for sure, would have been against any military presence of Russia at the territory of new member-state of the alliance while Russia would never agree on withdrawal of its troops from Crimea.
Signing the agreement mentioned above, which was prolonged by Victor Yanukovych in 2010, was to some extend insurance for Russia in case there would not have been favorable geopolitical conditions to attack Ukraine.
So, the main reason is still the recognition of the annexation of Crimea and autonomy for the Donbas?
Yes, it was one of main requirements of Russia at the very beginning of the conflict. Russian troops occupied Crimea explaining the annexation of the peninsula as preventive measure against attempts of “Ukrainian Nazi” to kill Russian-speaking population. Then, Russians started provocations aimed at destabilizing Donbas in order to present it as a people’s riot against “Nazi coup d’état” that resulted in the illegal overthrowing of democratically elected president Victor Yanukovych. Later they started to require federalization of Ukrainian political system and providing Donbas with a special status and political autonomy.
Ordinary people have no voice in this situation because Russia has appointed its own puppet government and has been trying to coerce Ukraine to negotiate with terrorists who have full support of Russian army and secret services. If Ukraine agrees on the autonomy, then it will allow Russia to say that this is civil war. For the last three years more than 500.000 people from occupied territories were given Russian citizenship.
Autonomy also means that there would not be any checkpoints near these territories and potential terrorists will be able to travel Ukraine without any problems. Autonomy, for sure, will undermine our national security because of terrorist attacks, arms trafficking and creating pro-Russian armed groups with military experience.
The price of gas has skyrocketed, which generates more revenue for Russia, and on the other hand the US arms companies are making a big business out of this tension, don’t you get the feeling that Ukraine is being played in a game between these powers?
I would rather say that Ukrainians realize that the West does not do enough to stop Russia and Germany and France want to resolve this conflict in order to be able to trade with Russia. We should take into account that Germans and French care first of all of their own national interests not about the interests of Ukraine.
Nord Stream-2 it is probably the most prominent example of German political realism. Germany declares its full support for Ukrainian territorial integrity but at the same time has been blocking supplying weaponry to Ukraine since the very beginning of the conflict. There is an evident competition between Russia and the USA for the loyalty of Germany and France as the most powerful countries of the European Union. Germany needs Nord Stream-2 in order to become a monopolist on the European energy market what will allow Berlin to sell cheap Russian gas and manipulate gas prices to get more influence in the EU.
France wants to become independent from security umbrella of Washington and develop pragmatic relations with Russia but still should take into account the attitude of the United States because of its leading role in NATO. We also should remember that Emanuel Macron in his interview for Financial Times said that NATO continues to fight against Russia with geopolitical logic that no longer exists because there is not more a Warsaw Pact. Such a statement of French president looks very naïve if we read Russia’s 2015 National Security Strategy where was written that expanding NATO to the East is a threat for Russian national security.
Launching Nord Stream-2 will lead to decreasing gas transit via Ukraine what would allow Moscow to increase political and military pressure against Kyiv. The last US-German declaration that they will not allow to use Nord Stream-2 is not an official document but a declaration, and that means that USA and Germany are not obliged to fulfill their promises.
As for selling weapons, Ukraine has finally got all the weaponry which Ukrainian army needed in 2014. I think average Ukrainians and soldiers do not care whether US arms companies do business at our war or not. Someone always does.
What do you think of the performance of Zelensky’s government? Do you consider it capable of asserting the Ukrainian position in negotiations with the Minsk agreement countries (Germany, France and Russia)?
Volodymyr Zelensky it is a direct result of Poroshenko’s performance. In 2019, when Zelensky started his political campaign he said that he will end the war. He did not say how he was going to do it but he promised it. That is main reason why I think that he is not able to protect our position in negotiations with Normandy Four. He wants to enter history as a president who brought peace to Ukraine and relies only on diplomatic approach in the conflict resolution.
During the visit of Olaf Scholz in Moscow he mentioned that Zelensky promised that Ukraine will prepare a bill on special status of temporarily occupied territories of Donbas. After the visit of Scholz to Moscow, Russian Ministry of Defense announced that they withdraw a part of Russian troops from Ukrainian border. Main goal of Putin was to coerce the West and Ukraine to negotiate with him and to accept his conditions. If Russia withdrew a part of its troops it means that Zelensky has agreed on Putin’s conditions.
I think we will see which exactly conditions Zelensky accepted when he will meet with Putin in Turkey. Both of them accepted the invitation of Erdogan to visit Turkey and discuss the situation.
Turkey has showed support for Ukraine but cooperated with Russia in the last war in Nagorno-Karabakh. What is the position of Turkey in this conflict?
Turkey is not pro-Russian or anti-Russian. Turkey is, first of all, pro-Turkish. In 2017, Erdogan bought S-400 missile defense systems from Russia but in 2022 signed the agreement about manufacturing Turkish drones in Ukraine. During the 2019 London Summit of NATO, Turkey threatened to block NATO’s Baltic defense plan if NATO refused to recognize the Kurdish People’s Protection Units as a terrorist organization. In 2021, Turkey declared its readiness to take an active part in diplomatic initiative the Crimea Platform aimed at restoring Ukrainian control over Crimea. First of all, Erdogan knows that Ukrainian crisis it is long-term conflict, so Turkey can really benefit from this conflict selling us weapons.
Turkey is also key ally of NATO in the Middle East and Erdogan knows it, that is why he supports all Ukrainian geopolitical aspirations of Ukraine aimed at the integration with the West but at the same time works with Russia in order to get additional leverages for negotiating with the West in those cases where Turkey needs Russian’s assistance. In this conflict Erdogan will not support Russia because Turkey will lose more than it can gain but, when the situation changes, he will be able to find new points of contact with Putin.
Source: El Correo de España
