By Tadas Klimas
The world has been fundamentally changed by Ukraine. This is true, although nearly all Western coverage has been scaredy-cat and daft.
Russia expected to waltz into Ukraine. It didn‘t. Russian forces have failed in all their objectives. A thousand Russian soldiers die each day of the assault. In the four days prior to this writing, 4,000 have died. This is twice the number of American deaths in Afghanistan over twenty years.
(And no, Kyiv was never surrounded, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy lives. Indeed, the airport near Kyiv was retaken by local Ukrainian forces; in essence state-level reservists, who retook the airport from Russian elite troops.)
What this means is that the myth of Russian might has been broken for all time.
It doesn‘t matter if the war isn’t over. This is evident from the last four days. And there really are no reserves to be thrown in. They would have been thrown in already.
Second, the myth that Russia poses no threat, that it is a normal country if a bit misunderstood, that it is anything other than a primitive dictatorship, has been exploded.
Believe it or not, this myth was held even in the higher reaches of NATO and many European countries which had never been occupied by the Russians. That includes Germany.
Germany for the first time since WWII is sending war materiel to a war zone. It has voted to double its piddling 1 percent GDP armed forces spending. It’s suspended Nord Stream 2.
Even Portugal is sending war materiel to Ukraine. Not to be outdone, the European Union has decided to purchase equipment to send. (EU thankfully has no army.)
Russian planes cannot fly in the European Union. The country has been removed from SWIFT. Its central bank’s reserves are being frozen.
Even sports organizations are recognizing the outlaw nature of Russia.
What this means is that Russia has been recognized as an international pariah.
Or to use a phrase being used by many Eastern Europeans in social media posts, as Mordor.
Thirdly, it is certain now that Ukraine at some point will join the European Union and NATO. Perhaps not soon, but the will of its people to have a normal country is undeniable. Their will to accomplish this is being forged in fire.
Note that, with Poland and Lithuania, countries with which it has been associated for hundreds of years, it would form a bloc larger in population than Germany. Needless to say, this would change the balance of power within the countries of Europe, and of the EU as well.
What this means is that Ukraine as a country wishes to be a normal country amongst other civilized countries, and it won‘t accept any level of Russian dominance or influence.
Ukraine’s people now despise the Russians; to use social media parlance of recent days, one doesn’t give in to orcs.
That in turn is why maverick former Democrat Rep. Tulsi Gabbard could not be more wrong. She has repeatedly insisted America should have told Russia that Ukraine will never join NATO. What a fool. This is precisely wrong. One must always leave the door open for those countries that have hope to become fully Western. To do otherwise would be to give such countries over to the forces of evil for them to do what they like with them. Now Ukraine has hope, and the hope and desire for decency are inspiring their fight, which they are winning.
How did Russia make such a miscalculation?
Some smart people say it’s because Putin and his cronies believed their own propaganda. But that‘s not really it.
Consider that, if, God forbid, Russia had been invading Lithuania, they would have killed civilians indiscriminately. Lithuanians are not Slavs, and the Russians know they aren’t wanted there, and they hate Lithuanians for it.
But the Russians see, or saw, Ukrainians as part of themselves. That is why they wanted to invade. The invading Russian soldiers were given strict orders not to harm Ukrainian civilians, which proves the point.
This also shows a fundamental problem. Russian soldiers don‘t know why they are there. They have no motivation. They believed Ukrainians would love them. They don‘t get that the reverse is true. Some Lithuanians in Ukraine report that the Russian armed forces seem to be sleepwalking.
All that Russia has accomplished in Ukraine is that ethnic Russians living in Ukraine are joining the Ukrainian armed forces. And they hate the invader to death.
What will happen next?
Russia will lose. It has run out of many types of munitions — and fuel. Its soldiers go unfed and without ammunition. The war is costing Russia unsustainable sums. The freezing of its central bank reserves along with other economic sanctions taken by the West is beginning to create unheard-of inflation. Hundreds of tanks and armored carriers blown apart or abandoned line the road north of Kyiv.
Ukraine has to hold out for some time longer. And it will. And it will win. If the reader thinks this is an exaggeration or some overly hopeful wishful thinking, the reader is wrong.
Slava Ukraini – Glory to Ukraine.
Tadas Klimas is an American of Lithuanian descent who was awarded the U.S. National Intelligence Medal of Achievement (NIMA). He is also a former law professor and is the author of Comparative Contract Law.