By: Domen Mezeg / Nova24tv
“The reach of the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is 30 percent, and that cannot be increased. On the other hand, this reach can also not be significantly reduced; however, the opposite is true for all the left-wing parties, where the percentage of support changes according to any slightly more important “cough” from Murgle – therefore, the Social Democrats party (SD) could win anywhere between 25 and 5 percent in the elections. Right-wing parties can be satisfied with the results, as they will apparently have more votes in total (44 percent) than the so-called Constitutional Arch Coalition (42 percent). In this general media chase against the SDS and New Slovenia (NSi) parties, this is a great success,” journalist and editor Tino Mamić commented on the result of a recent public opinion poll conducted for Nova24TV by the Parsifal Agency.
The first question in Parsifal’s recent poll referred to support for political parties. Namely, it read: “If the elections to the National Assembly were held this Sunday, how likely it is that you would participate in them?” We received the answer that 53.9 percent of all respondents would definitely take part in the next parliamentary election (score 5 out of 5). Meanwhile, 13.5 percent of all respondents would definitely not participate in the election (score 1 out of 5).
A review of changes through time that includes three different dates, namely; the 17th of October 2021, the 19th of November 2021, and the 17th of December 2021, found that the highest percentage saying that they would definitely not attend the elections (13.5 percent) was recorded on the last date. Meanwhile, 12.9 percent of respondents chose this answer on the second date and only 11.8 on the first date. Over time, the share of those who are absolutely certain that they are going to attend the elections also fell. On the first date, 57.9 percent of the respondents were certain that they would attend the elections, while on the second date this number already fell to 56.4 percent, and on the third, to 53.9 percent.
We can see some interesting data if we look at the crossover of the demographic and content variables. Namely, among those who will certainly not attend the elections, there are more women (14.1 percent), while 13 percent are men. At the same time, people aged between 18 and 34 represent the largest group in this category (25.5 percent), and most of them have completed high education or higher (16.4 percent).
Women (55.3 percent) are also predominant among those who will definitely go vote, while 52.4 percent are men. This group is dominated by persons aged 55 and over (67.3 percent), who have a vocational education (57.7 percent).
The SDS party would receive the most votes
If the elections to the National Assembly were held this Sunday, the largest percentage of voters would support the SDS party (20 percent), followed by the SD party (14.0 percent), the Levica party – the Left (6.6 percent), the LMŠ party (6.1 percent), and NSi (5.1 percent). Meanwhile, 35.5 percent on the voters are still undecided.
Among those who already know who they would vote for, the SDS party would receive 30.9 percent of the vote, the SD party 21.8 percent, and the Levica party 10.3 percent of all votes.
Fluctuations in support for the parties over time
Compared to the last public opinion poll, support for the SDS party has increased (from 28.6 percent to 30.9 percent) and is still ahead of the SD party and Levica party. However, support for the SD and Levica parties has also increased. Meanwhile, support for the LMŠ, Let’s Connect Slovenia (Povežimo Slovenijo), SAB and DeSUS parties has fallen.
Compared to the November poll, support for the SDS party is growing
If we take a look at changes in support over time, measured on three different dates again, namely, the 17th of October 2021, the 19th of November 2021, and the 17th of December 2021, we can see that support for the SDS party has risen again since the second date, amounting to 20 percent. We are also seeing a constant trend of growing support for the SD party (from 10.7 percent on the first date to 14 percent of the third date). However, when it comes to the LMŠ party, we recorded a slight decrease in support, compared to the second date, as it only amounts to 6.1 percent on the last date.
Compared to the second-mentioned date, the NSi party also recorded a slight decline in support – namely, on the third date, its support amounted to 5.1 percent. On the other hand, support for the Levica party has risen slightly since the second date, to 6.6 percent. The Let’s Connect Slovenia’s movement’s support has fallen to 3.2 percent, and support for the SAB party has also fallen to 2.5 percent. All other parties recorded much lower support.
An interesting fact is that the SDS party supports higher support among men (26.2 percent) than women (14.4 percent). When it comes to the age of its supporters, the largest percentage of them is from the group of 55 and older (26.3 percent). At the same time, most of the supporters have completed primary school education (41.3 percent). The SD party also enjoys higher support from men (14.4 percent) than from women (13.6 percent). It also has the largest number of supporters from the group of 55 and older (18.1 percent), who mostly have primary school education (21.2 percent). NSi also enjoys higher support among men (5.5 percent) than women (4.8 percent), with the largest number of its supporters coming from the youngest age group of 18 to 34 (8.8 percent), with people with a vocational education predominating (6.2 percent).
We asked journalist and editor Tino Mamić for comment: “At the moment, it is difficult to accurately assess anything because the cards have not been dealt yet; they are still being shuffled. The godfathers from the background have probably already decided to create a “centre” party, in addition to pushing the Constitutional Arch Coalition, which will be led by Robert Golob. And if that does not work out, then it might be Tomaž Vesel. In any case, it seems that this “new wind of change” will, for the fifth time in a row, have a significant impact on the results when it comes to left-wing voters, where at least a fifth of Slovenian citizens vote at the behest of uncles from the background. Once we find out what their plans are, the results of the survey will be more realistic, but for now, a part of the equation remains unknown. The reach of the SDS party is 30 percent, and that cannot be increased. On the other hand, this reach can also not be significantly reduced; however, the opposite is true for all the left-wing parties, where the percentage of support changes according to any slightly more important cough from Murgle – therefore, the Social Democrats party (SD) could win anywhere between 25 and 5 percent in the elections. Right-wing parties can be satisfied with the results, as they will apparently have more votes in total (44 percent) than the so-called Constitutional Arch Coalition (42 percent). In this general media chase against the SDS and NSi parties, this is a great success.”
General demographic data on the participants in the survey
The survey was conducted over the telephone, and it included 724 respondents, of which 52 percent were women. The average age of the participants is 52.1 years, and the standard deviation is 15.8 years. The majority of the respondents are from the oldest age group (43.7 percent), a slightly smaller share of participants belongs to the middle age group (37.2 percent), and the smallest number of respondents is from the youngest age group (19.2 percent). The majority of the respondents have completed high school (34.1 percent), followed by those with completed high education or higher (27.1 percent), 24.3 percent of respondents have finished vocational school, and 14.5 percent have either completed or have not completed primary school. The majority of the respondents currently reside in a small village or hamlet (52.5 percent), followed by those who live in the city (29.5 percent) or a smaller town (17.9 percent). Most of the respondents are from Central Slovenia (27 percent), followed by the Podravska (14.5 percent) and Savinjska (12.2 percent) region.