By: Spletni časopis
The ruling parties are in serious bankruptcy, and in the elections, voters would send them into the opposition – many would not even make it into parliament.
Last week, a poll by Mediana for Delo was followed yesterday by another survey from Parsifal agency for Nova24TV. The results of the latter are an even bigger disaster for the ruling coalition. Just how serious the situation is, was also shown by last night’s blow delivered by POP TV against Prime Minister Robert Golob over alleged free holidays in Karigador, in the vacation home of Tomaž Subotič, where he supposedly stayed for a week with Tina Gaber and Pina Weisseisen – without Subotič. Gaber reportedly also tried to get accommodation there for a night on her own, but according to POP TV, the Subotič family did not allow it. Golob appointed Subotič to the board of the Celje General Hospital – which Subotič also heads – and to the board of the Ljubljana Psychiatric Clinic. However, Subotič lost his supervisory position there when the government failed to remove director Bojan Zalar in order to secure control over that important institution. Such institutions can hold interesting data about rivals – and help cover up one’s own tracks. After POP TV aired the story, Subotič resigned as president and board member of the Celje hospital.
Given the large number of personal text messages aired on TV between the key players – including the appearance of well-known lawyer Nina Zidar Klemenčič on Subotič’s side – and even internal party documents such as Subotič’s membership form for the Gibanje Svoboda, this is clearly also an internal power struggle around the Prime Minister, who is otherwise known for secrecy and evading clear explanations of his actions.
The content of the personal correspondence between Subotič and Golob could only have been leaked to the media by one of them. It certainly was not Golob.
In the teaser for the segment, POP TV used a well-known propaganda trick of the left, which they often use to discredit former Prime Minister Janez Janša (SDS), suggesting he acted similarly – but with footage from the time he was in opposition and without any data on how he supposedly “repaid” anything. This was pointed out as a repeated manipulation tactic.
The balance of power between the parties – a major disaster for the ruling coalition and an indication that Golob would have to step down from the top of the government immediately if elections were held this Sunday, despite recently handing out pre-election perks and privileges left and right – is, according to Parsifal, as follows:
Given the serious collapse of the ruling parties shown in the polls, there is a real risk that within the year before the elections, they might again misuse the judiciary and parliament to try to prevent Janez Janša, the long-time leader of the largest opposition party SDS, from becoming prime minister for a fourth time – which would match the achievement of Janez Drnovšek. Until now, only Janša and Drnovšek have been elected as prime minister more than once. This week, the scandalous court case known as the “Trenta case” continues in Celje – a case initiated by Goran Klemenčič, the former husband of Nina Zidar Klemenčič, who was promoted from deputy to Interior Minister Katarina Kresal (LDS) to the head of the Commission for the Prevention of Corruption (CPC), from where he attempted to destroy Janša. To some extent, he also targeted Zoran Janković. The discrediting of Janša through allegations that he profited from the sale of the Trenta property was based on an exceptionally low appraisal value for a 15,613 square meter building plot on the Soča River, made by court appraiser Breda Zorko. She is also known from the recent Litijska affair, where she appraised the same building – bought by Dominika Švarc Pipan – in two completely different ways, apparently leading to the property being overpaid by millions of euros. Although the latest high valuation for the Litijska building was signed by Anton Rigler, he later admitted the author was actually Zorko, who has now been reported to the police (NPU) for her conduct in that case.
Janša has already been targeted multiple times with fabricated court cases and abuse of power. Most notably in the Patria case, where the Constitutional Court later unanimously overturned court decisions that had sent him to prison just before the elections. The Court declared the case to be a judicial construct and the result of unfair trial practices. It also annulled the illegal revocation of Janša’s parliamentary mandate – a move deemed an abuse of power by the parties that came to power with Miro Cerar. As then Speaker of Parliament, Milan Brglez (then SMC, now SD) embarrassed himself. Today, he serves as deputy to Justice Minister Andreja Katič (SD).
“POP TV has struck at Golob. Janša, in turn, is again being targeted through misuse of the judiciary and political power.”
According to Parsifal, the SDS is still supported by the most voters, although slightly fewer than in the Mediana poll for Delo the week before. There is a significant difference when it comes to smaller right-wing parties, which, according to Parsifal, would receive much higher shares than reported by Mediana. Anže Logar’s Democrats are even ranked third behind SDS and Svoboda, while Matej Tonin’s NSi is ahead of Matjaž Han’s SD – a party which, according to Mediana, would not even make it into parliament. If we adjust the power balance by excluding undecided voters and then also those who would not cross the parliamentary threshold, the picture looks like this:
The Resni.ca party, led by former high-ranking SNS official Zoran Stevanović, would also make it into parliament – but this would not save the ruling parties, and together they would still remain in the opposition.
Just below the threshold are two other right-wing parties: SLS with 3.9%, and Pavle Rupar’s Glas upokojencev with 3.5%. It is not impossible that either could make it over the threshold.
For the ruling parties, this situation is a cause for serious depression – and a rush to find new faces and parties to save what can still be saved. Along with abusing power to block their rivals – a tactic for which our country is, unfortunately, known.
Long-term trends for parliamentary parties and the Democrats show the following:
In the charts and article published by Spletni časopis, party support shares are recalculated to include only voters who have already made up their minds about a party. This allows for accurate comparisons with elections and between surveys. “Other” parties – those respondents mention themselves, but which were not offered in the poll – are also counted among determined voters. The raw party support numbers from various polls, published by the media and used as the basis for recalculations, are presented in the tables (clickable for larger view).
I include all the data used for recalculations to help readers understand the differences between the surveys and allow for verification in case any errors occurred during data handling or transfer.
