Schools in the U.K. will somehow need to find around 420,000 extra school places over the next ten years, thanks – at least in part – to a large baby boom among migrant mothers.
The Department of Education’s newest projections suggest that although “Direct immigration of pupils born outside the U.K. has a very small effect on the school-age population” in comparison to the birth rate, the birth rate “is in turn affected by any increase in the number of children born to non-U.K. born women (who overall tend to have higher fertility rates).”
A report which explains the fundamental methodology of the new figures describes that “Changes in the population who are of school age is largely driven by an increase in the birth rate rather than direct immigration,” but “that birth rate is in turn affected by any increase in the number of children born to non-UK born women (compared to those born to U.K.-born women).”
The government report also states, “The number of children born to non-U.K. born women increased by around 75 percent between 2002 and 2013 (the years in which many children currently in schools were born).” Writers of the report seem to attempt to downplay the significance of these figures by proposing that “this was a period of increased births generally.”