By: Ž. K. (nova24tv.si)
It has been nearly three years since former Interior Minister Tatjana Bobnar launched accusations against Robert Golob, claiming he exerted political pressure on police operations. During this period, little has happened. One could say the judiciary has been idling, with the case only gaining new momentum in the pre-election period. We spoke with Dr Matevž Tomšič about the potential political consequences this affair could have as the current mandate draws to a close.
In the past week, the Specialised State Prosecutor’s Office has taken two rather unusual steps. In addition to launching a house search against former Interior Minister Aleš Hojs, it also filed a request for judicial investigation against the Prime Minister over alleged political pressure on police operations. Both actions carry political undertones and historical parallels, even though they are fundamentally different in nature. The Prosecutor’s Office is also investigating both cases with significant delay.
To recall: the house search at Hojs’s residence was conducted due to suspicions that he disclosed information to the Kavač Clan in 2021. The delay spans several years, and based on publicly available information, the authorities do not appear to possess substantial evidence. If they did, they likely would not be relying on a house search to find it. Hojs has categorically denied the allegations. The case involving Golob is entirely different. The accusations were publicly made in letters by former Interior Minister Tatjana Bobnar and former acting Director General of Police Boštjan Lindav. These are not anonymous claims, they come from two high-ranking former officials. Political analyst Matevž Tomšič notes that this week’s developments resemble the infamous decision by the Commission for the Prevention of Corruption (CPC), which years ago simultaneously “condemned” SDS leader Janez Janša and Zoran Janković.
“There is always a sense that this is not normal, professional, impartial work by judicial authorities, but that someone is pulling the strings behind the scenes,” Tomšič comments, adding that both cases are being processed far too late.
He suggests that on one hand, there may be an attempt to exert pressure on SDS by incriminating a key member of the party, while on the other hand, the Prosecutor’s Office may be trying to show that it can also pursue cases against those in power, though in this instance, perhaps against someone who is already politically “written off.”
Will Golob’s supporters migrate to Prebilič?
Seasoned observers of Slovenian politics have noted a recurring pattern: toward the end of a transitional left candidate’s mandate, compromising stories tend to emerge. The purpose is clear – those who originally backed the candidate abandon them after one term and launch a new face. These damaging narratives, aimed at a “worn-out” political figure, pave the way for the election of a successor. This naturally raises the question: are we now witnessing a shift of support from Robert Golob to Vladimir Prebilič, the new face of behind-the-scenes power centres?
Political analyst Dr Matevž Tomšič acknowledges that such a scenario is conceivable, but remains cautious: “It is not a given that Prebilič will automatically inherit those votes, as Golob did,” he says. Asked what made the last parliamentary elections different, Tomšič explains: “That period was unique, the pandemic had not yet ended, and people were weary of prolonged anti-COVID measures. The Freedom Movement was installed quite effectively from a PR standpoint, emphasising liberty.” He adds that such political momentum is now absent. Back then, Janez Janša was in power, making it easier to stir public sentiment through “anti-Janša” rhetoric. Today, with Janša no longer in office, it is much harder to mobilise voters through fear of a figure who is not currently governing.
Should Golob resign?
For the first time since the beginning of Robert Golob’s term, it seems that the Prime Minister might need to step down, not only due to incompetence and serious missteps, but also for the sake of his own political interest. Why? His resignation could shift media attention away from the affair involving alleged political pressure on the police. The judicial process against him would lose momentum, and he could potentially outpace Vladimir Prebilič before the latter’s political project gains real traction.
However, political analyst Matevž Tomšič sees the situation as more delicate: “It would be a double-edged move. Stepping down might indeed take the wind out of the sails of the proceedings against him, but it could also be interpreted as an admission that the accusations were justified. He would then be heading into elections as a resigned Prime Minister, which would appear contradictory.”