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Thursday, June 30, 2022

Hungarian election 3 April – Last poll: FIDESZ wins

By Elmar Forster
Accordingly, 50% of the voters should support the two governing parties, FIDESZ and KDNP.

The director of the Median Poll Institute, Endre Hann (according to the publication of the poll results on HVG360 at the end of March) considers Fidesz’s election victory almost certain. The only question is: to what extent.
The survey once again confirms the significant Fidesz advantage, which was already measured in the previous month.

This would result in the following distribution of mandates:
• Fidesz-KDNP party alliance: 128
• the six-party bloc opposition: 71
The latter divided by factions:
• The Democratic Coalition: 20 (ex-socialists of ex-lying Prime Minister Gyurcsany)
• Jobbik 14 (formerly right-wing extremist and anti-Semitic)
• Momentum 13, (liberal)
• MSZP 12, (socialists)
• Dialogue 7 (Greens)
• Liberals 5

The willingness to voter turnout has also increased from 75% (February poll) to 80% (end of March). All parties have exhausted their core voter potential. The 12% undecided would no longer influence the outcome of the election because they are divided into three camps between: ‘persistence’, ‘change’ and ‘undecided’.
The mood towards the election outcome is also interesting: two-thirds of the population and even a third of opposition voters expect a Fidesz victory.
The bloc-opposition alliance is only ahead in Budapest (27 : 45 %), but in the countryside the preference is reversed for the governing parties (43:29), in the municipalities even 50:26.
The Ukraine war and the associated feeling of fear strengthened the position of Fidesz, which Hungary clearly wants to keep out of the war.

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