By: Spletni časopis
The debacle at the referendum benefited Robert Golob’s Svoboda party, brought it additional voters, and brought it closer to Janez Janša’s SDS at the top of the party rankings.
At least, if we believe the Mediana poll for Delo. According to a survey by the same Mediana for POP TV a week earlier, both of the largest parties were supposed to lose something with the referendum. Delo has now corrected this: Svoboda would be supported by 22.9 percent of voters (compared to 20.8 a week earlier), while SDS would have 28.1 percent (previously 28.6). The surprise in Delo’s measurement is that Vladimir Prebilič’s Prerod would end far below the threshold, while Zoran Stevanović’s Resni.ca and Zmago Jelinčič’s SNS would gain MPs.
But when assessing the significance of these shares, it is wise to be very cautious. Mediana, for Delo measured just before the referendum that a decisive majority, over 60 percent of voters, would support the government parties’ law on state assistance in suicides. Yet it suffered a heavy defeat. Before the European elections, they measured a close tie between Svoboda and SDS, but SDS then won four seats, while Svoboda won two.
Mediana for Delo showed a dramatic drop for Vladimir Prebilič’s Prerod, from 6.3 percent down to only 2.9 percent. In last week’s survey, Delo combined Prerod with Matjaž Han’s SD, which with 8 percent slightly strengthened in third place. Over the weekend, after the survey, Prerod rejected the merger offered by Han.
The strong spin we witnessed, when the media, with Milan Kučan’s support, tried to link Prerod as a party with the same programme as SD, claiming that separately it was just wasting time, probably lowered Prebilič’s share and raised Svoboda’s.
Because small parties deal with very small shares, and because opinion polls have lately missed badly even with much larger numbers, and because media spins work only short‑term, it is too early for any firm conclusions.
Far better than Prerod performed Anže Logar’s Democrats, who with 4.6 percent are almost equal to NSi and Levica, both at 4.8 percent.
Mediana for Delo measured Levica and Vesna separately, though they had already announced a joint run in the elections. For POP TV last week, the same agency measured them together. Levica’s trend has been downward all along, whether measured with Vesna or separately. With 4.8 percent, according to Delo, they are still slightly above their last election result, when the party barely entered parliament.
Vesna has lately been consistently far below the threshold.
Conversely, Mediana showed a considerable rise for Zoran Stevanović’s Resni.ca and Jelinčič’s SNS, from which former policeman Stevanović emerged. Both would gain MPs. With 2 percent, relatively high is also the new far‑left party We, Socialists of Miha Kordiš.
Resni.ca, with 5.9 percent, jumped to fourth place among parties, behind SD, overtaking Jernej Vrtovec’s NSi. Mediana, which for Delo measures Vesna separately, this time did not measure (or at least did not show separately) SLS, which in Mediana’s POP TV poll a week earlier was just below the threshold for entering parliament. SNS, with 4.3 percent, would not lag far behind Democrats, NSi, and Levica.
Longer‑term comparisons by several agencies show that SDS is far ahead, the ruling Svoboda lags considerably, and far behind follows a large group of parties with similar shares, which in the coming years may become important or remain below the threshold.
It will also depend on alliances and campaigns in the coming months.
In the graphics and article in Spletni časopis, party support shares are recalculated so that only voters who identified with a party are considered. This allows comparison with elections and between surveys. Those identified with parties also include the choice of “other” parties – usually those not offered to respondents but mentioned spontaneously. The original support shares from various surveys, as published by the media and serving as the basis for recalculations, are presented in the tables (clickable to enlarge).
All the data used as the basis for recalculations are provided, as this makes it easier to understand differences between surveys and also allows checking whether any errors occurred in data transfer or processing.
