By: dr. Andreja Valič Zver
February 2022 will go down in world history as a month of tectonic shifts that are still ongoing. Many of us would rank the military aggression of Putin’s Russia against Ukraine at the top of the list of global geopolitical upheavals. Of course, this list also includes the brutal attack by Hamas terrorists on Israel, the ongoing bloody persecution of Christians in Africa and elsewhere, and, last but not least, the rising tensions in the Balkans, which is once again becoming a powder keg. If a third world war were to begin, it would very likely start in Bosnia – where else?
As is now known, Putin had been preparing the military attack on the neighbouring country for several years. It was expected that he would strike during the Beijing Olympics. The naivety and backroom deals of world leaders, who “benevolently” left Ukraine without nuclear weapons, among other things, contributed to a tragedy of unimaginable proportions. The war, which was supposed to end in ten days according to the plans of Putin’s military leadership, has been going on for more than three years. A vast number of (mostly) young and still beardless soldiers have lost their lives on the muddy battlefields. Millions of families have been permanently scarred, many displaced. A huge number of children have been stolen or have disappeared. Young men are fleeing forced conscription. Enormous sums of money are pouring into the military machine fuelling this bloody conflict. Despite the Western leaders’ vows that they “unanimously” stand behind Ukraine and its leader Zelensky, and despite economic and other measures against Russia, Moscow has turned to dictators such as Lukashenko in Belarus, Kim Jong Un in North Korea, Ali Khamenei in Iran, and, most importantly, Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, in these complex circumstances.
Let me go back to 2022, when, on Thursday, February 24th, I (and probably many of you) was awakened early in the morning by a flood of news on X about the Russian aggression. This was followed by an intense working atmosphere in the cabinet of the third Janša government, of which I was a part. Thursday’s regular and Friday’s extraordinary government sessions, in addition to regular duties, were dedicated to analysing the situation and discussing how to react in these extremely tense moments. Prime Minister Janša appeared to be the calmest, extremely focused on explaining the circumstances and finding an optimal solution. His conviction that NATO must close the skies over Ukraine and decisively show the Russian aggressor that it is not merely a toothless tiger was particularly striking. When Janša’s words became public, an uproar erupted, claiming that this would drag us into a third world war. Even NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg was horrified and blindly followed the agenda of “exhausting” Russia in one way or another. However, as we have already observed, this agenda is not working; instead, it has led to the alignment of authoritarian regimes in direct opposition to the so-called Western nations. In the end, it is Europe that has been the most drained!
Amid all the upheaval and fears regarding Ukraine, its fate, and that of Europe, it is worth recalling the words of former Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki, who recently noted that the growing tensions in U.S.-Ukrainian relations indicate that wise dialogue, rather than provocation, is urgently needed. He asserted that European leaders’ support for Zelensky on X is merely symbolic and that they should instead specify how much money, weaponry, and military equipment they will provide in the coming week. He added that “only a fool repeats the same thing and expects a different result each time.” He also dismissed claims that Ukraine had been alone from the start as difficult to accept, recalling a visit to Kyiv on March 15th, 2022. At that time, amid constant shelling, he was accompanied by Slovenian Prime Minister Janša, Czech Prime Minister Fiala, and the leader of Poland’s PiS party, Kaczyński. They supported Ukraine at its most difficult and dangerous moment. Poland also provided concrete aid in various ways and paid a high price for it. Morawiecki also dropped another bombshell, revealing that Western leaders believed Ukraine would fall within days in February 2022, after which they planned to negotiate with Putin’s Russia, “whatever it may be”. Dear readers, “Realpolitik” as we knew it in the 19th century is back in full force!
