By: Vida Kocjan
Economic growth during the government of Robert Golob is significantly decreasing. In the second quarter of 2022, the real growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) was 8.6 percent, in the third 3.3 percent, and in the last, fourth quarter, only 0.2 percent.
The data published by the Office of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia (Umar) also show that exports to EU countries are decreasing significantly. Real gross investments fell sharply last year, from 16.7 percent in the second quarter to 0.5 percent in the last quarter.
The forecasts for 2023 are not promising either. Macroeconomists predict that economic growth will moderate significantly this year, expecting only 1.8% growth. In the spring forecast, Umar wrote that they expect moderate growth in investments, which will be supported by public and EU funds. However, this is also changing. The ruling coalition has already started to change the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP). The Ministry of Finance, led by Klemen Boštjančič (Gibanje Svoboda party), will start negotiations with the European Commission on the transformation of the RRP in the coming weeks.
The Chamber of Commerce of Slovenia (GZS) states that the Slovenian government has already reduced RRP by 300 million euros. They are very concerned and disappointed that the volume of resources within the RRP is decreasing. As a result, the reorganisation of the RRP resulted in the suspension or change of some projects. It is known, however, that European funds are often the only development funds. Slovenia is already recognised on the European stage as one of the worst in drawing funds. During the time of the government of Janez Janša, Slovenia became one of the most effective countries in this regard.
It is clear from the announcements of the GZS that liquidity problems are already occurring in the economy. The businessmen addressed a public letter to the Prime Minister, in which they warn him about the multitude of unresolved issues in the energy sector.
All this does not mean anything good and indicates the beginning of a difficult period, such as we have already known under socialist governments.