By: Dr Vinko Gorenak
The chief of the Golob camp declared a magnificent victory in the elections of 22 March 2026. He even arrived at his party headquarters like a sun king, to whom everyone is subordinate. The Freedom Movement (GS) received 333,973 votes, while SDS received 326,036 votes. In this context, GS is the relative winner of the election. But let us look at the numbers a bit more closely.
So, GS received 333,973 votes, whereas in 2022 it received 410,769 votes; it therefore lost as many as 76,796 votes, or 12 parliamentary seats. The current governing coalition (GS, SD and Levica) received a total of 477,363 votes, while in 2022 it received 543,712 votes; it therefore lost 66,349 votes and consequently lost 13 parliamentary seats. Does that seem like a magnificent victory to you? It does not seem so to me.
Let us look at the opposite side. SDS received 326,036 votes in this year’s election, while in 2022 it received 279,897 votes; meaning SDS received 46,139 more votes this year. NSi, together with the coalition around it (SLS and Fokus), received 108,386 votes this year, while in 2022 NSi alone received 81,794 votes; meaning it received 26,592 more votes this year. In terms of parliamentary mandates, SDS gained one additional MP this year, and NSi with its coalition also gained one additional MP. Does it not seem to you that for these parties, the year 2026 was more successful than 2022?
The entire situation was, to a large extent, predictable even before the election. Once again, it will not be the winners of the election who decide on the government, but the losers, as has been the case in most elections since 1996.
To support this claim, let me remind you of a few examples. The proportional electoral system we have generally leaves the door wide open for small political parties to enter the National Assembly. And these are very often the decisive factor, since the government is formed by whoever is supported by the small political parties.
In 1996, the then‑powerful LDS of Janez Drnovšek won the election, but the National Assembly was, in left–right terms, split down the middle, and without at least one MP switching sides, it was impossible to form a government. After the failed attempt to bribe Pavel Rupar, MP Ciril Pucko defected to Drnovšek’s LDS, and only then was Drnovšek able to form a government. In 2000, the situation was similar; Andrej Bajuk would not have been able to form a government had two MPs from Jelinčič’s SNS (Polonca Dobrajc and Eda Okretič Salmič) not contributed their two votes for Bajuk’s government. In 2004, it was similar again; if DeSUS, then led by Anton Rous, had not supported Janša’s government, it would not have existed. In 2008, the situation resembled that of 2022; the left‑wing trio, led by Borut Pahor, formed the government, just as in 2022, when Robert Golob formed the government – in both cases, the left simply received enough votes. In 2012, the winner of the election, Zoran Janković, did not form the government; it was formed by Janez Janša – solely because Gregor Virant and his Civic List (DL) switched to his side. When Gregor Virant switched to Alenka Bratušek’s side in 2013, she formed the government. In 2014, Cerar’s SMC won, but without SD or DeSUS he would not have been able to form a government. In 2018, Janša’s SDS won, but the government was formed by the loser of the election, Marjan Šarec, around whom small political parties gathered – DeSUS, SAB and SD enabled his government. In 2022, there was a reversal; when Marjan Šarec threw in the towel, the government was formed by Janez Janša, but without SMC he would not have been able to form it.
This year, the situation is similar. Golob cannot form a government, not even with his current coalition partners, SD and Levica, because together they have 40 MPs. Janša cannot form it either, because together with the coalition around NSi he has 38 MPs. The decisive actors will therefore once again be the actual losers of the election, Anže Logar with his Democrats and Zoran Stevanović with his Resni.ca. This is yet another proof that governments are decided by the losers of elections, not the winners.