By: Mitja Iršič
We are living in unprecedented times. The economy groans under global industrial-structural shifts that will demand deep tightening of public finances – all driven by Brussels’ fantasy of a green transition. Meanwhile, the Slovenian government seems to inhabit a different dimension, detached from the real lives of Slovenians. It continues to wage war on the economy, attacking the very foundation of our prosperity, all while spending recklessly and without restraint.
At its recent session, the government adopted the draft national budgets for the next two years, announcing that spending will rise to €17.7 billion, and the following year to €18 billion, levels reminiscent of the fattest of fat years.
All this while public services stagnate or even deteriorate. Waiting times for medical appointments, including urgent oncology cases, are growing longer. The number of uninsured individuals, those who regularly pay health contributions but have no designated general practitioner, dentist, or gynaecologist was around 125,000 in 2020; this year, it has already reached 163,000, following the government’s “victory” in its conflict with doctors and the Fides union. Slovenia’s pension system increasingly resembles a pyramid scheme, where payouts go primarily to those who entered the “game” earlier. Despite record budget revenues and record spending, the government insists there is no money. The public was recently shocked by the decision of Freedom Movement MPs that severely ill children with rare diseases do not deserve treatment abroad. Just days later, news broke that the government would send taxpayer money to the Palestinian Authority, led by billionaire Mahmoud Abbas – a government long accused by observers of systemic corruption and covert financial support for terrorism against Israeli civilians. At the same time, the state magically found over €100 million for Christmas bonuses for public sector employees, mocking the private sector with the suggestion that businesses should simply shut down if they cannot afford such bonuses.
The greatest tragedy we are witnessing is that people seem unaware of the abyss we are inevitably heading toward. Recent polling by Mediana shows that Slovenians express a relatively high level of optimism about life, around 60% identify as optimistic. Most also believe that businesses could easily afford Golob’s mandatory Christmas bonus. With eyes wide open, we are walking toward the edge of a cliff, just as we did in 1983, 1988, and 2009.
So what is really ahead?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have jointly warned of a global shock, a perfect storm of trade wars, energy crises due to the war in Ukraine, and the green transition. These scenarios are already unfolding. Without a change in direction, the EU faces a 4% drop in GDP and a 10–20% decline in industrial output, according to worst-case forecasts by investment bank BNP Paribas. Such a drop would mean years of lost productive potential. There is also talk of stagflation: the ECB warns of inflation persisting at 4–6% alongside recession, if the energy shock combines rising costs with falling real incomes, a textbook case of stagflation. In such a scenario, monetary policy offers no solution. If realised, up to 5 million EU citizens could lose their jobs. In these near-apocalyptic times, Slovenia is becoming the economic patient of Europe, while its government continues to spend irrationally.
All of this leaves one with the uneasy sense that the current government is operating under a scorched-earth mentality. They know they will never again shape national policy, let alone lead the executive branch, so they no longer care what happens. Someone else will clean up the mess. The government is spending like a patient without relatives who is just learned he has six months to live. Tragically for all of us, this “patient” will leave behind two million descendants.