By: Dr. Metod Berlec
Prime Minister Janez Janša emphasised at the recent Bled Strategic Forum that Europe’s ability to continue shaping the world around it will depend primarily on four strategic factors: security, resilience, demographic vitality, and credibility. He added: “The power to shape the future is built gradually. But the moments that define it often come suddenly.” He is undoubtedly right, as historical events of the past remind us!
First. Security and geopolitical stability. Janša: “Peace is not the natural state in international relations. It must be protected. NATO remains indispensable. A stronger Europe is not an alternative to the transatlantic partnership. It is what ensures its sustainability. Ukraine reminds us what is at stake. Ukrainians are not only defending their territory, but also the principle that borders cannot be changed by force and that nations have the right to choose their own future. A just peace must preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and its European future.”
Second. Resilience and reducing dependency. Janša: “Europe learned one of its clearest strategic lessons from Russia. For many years we treated cheap Russian energy as an economic advantage and underestimated the strategic risk. In 2021, Russia supplied 45 percent of the EU’s gas imports. When Moscow used energy as a weapon after the invasion of Ukraine, economic dependence became geopolitical vulnerability. By 2025, the share from Russia fell to 12 percent.” Europe, according to Janša, became too dependent on cheap Russian energy, Chinese products, and the American security umbrella.
Third. Demography as a strategic issue. Janša: “Demography is strategy. According to Eurostat, the fertility rate in the EU fell far below the replacement level, in 2024 to 1.34 children per woman, the lowest value ever recorded. … This means fewer workers supporting more dependents, greater pressure on public finances, and ultimately a smaller pool of people from which we can draw scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs, and soldiers.” In his view, Europe needs a deliberate family policy, secure borders, and legal, selective migration that corresponds to real economic needs.
Fourth. The credibility of the EU and the future budget. According to Janša, the EU must spend funds more wisely, invest in projects that deliver concrete results, and strengthen citizens’ trust. The next budget will be demanding, especially because of EU enlargement. Janša discussed this on Friday at Brdo pri Kranju with European Council President António Costa, who is touring EU member states regarding the proposed long‑term EU budget for 2028–2034.
At the BSF, Janša also highlighted the important role of Central and Eastern Europe in recent years. The countries of this part of the EU were the first to warn about the necessity of protecting external borders and offered effective practices that the Union should adopt. We can only agree with this, just as we agree that the new government is conducting a sober foreign policy, or as Minister Tone Kajzer says in an interview for our magazine: “Slovenia is a sovereign state and Slovenian foreign policy must serve primarily Slovenian national interests.” In other words: “responsible representation of the country’s interests”!
