By: Gašper Blažič
Whoever watched the show “24ur zvečer” on Pop TV on Monday evening (August 21st) had something to see and hear. Namely, the current Prime Minister Robert Golob and his predecessor Janez Janša were the only guests in the studio, this time not for confrontation, but for cooperation regarding the reconstruction of Slovenia after the devastating floods. And many were staring at the screen in disbelief, thinking that we had been accustomed to a different Golob and a different Janša. But is it really so?
For those who have been closely following Slovenian politics for a while, they know well that true unity has unfortunately been rare. During the defence against the YPA aggression in 1991, for instance, partial sobriety in the then-opposition LDS came gradually, when some of its prominent politicians started publicly saying that they regretted every rifle that the then-defence minister Janez Janša could not buy. Even then, we were not entirely sure if these statements were sincere or just damage control after a major mistake, when the top of this party attacked the Demos independence government immediately after the start of the armed aggression. Some prominent members prevented the controversial, practically treasonous statement from escalating too openly in public, which would undoubtedly have eased the aggressor’s work. Many in the LDS (then it was the Liberal Democratic Party, created from ZSMS-LS, led by Jožef Školč) were aware that such a statement would go too far, even though during the preparations for independence, they had been walking on the edge the whole time, supporting various peace declarations, hindering Slovenia’s defence preparations, interpreting the results of the plebiscite in their own way, and even writing pamphlets just before the celebration of the proclamation of independent Slovenia, which are now part of the annals of the establishment of the Slovenian state.
Indeed, almost sympathetically, even the then-President of the Presidency, Milan Kučan, had an intimate inclination towards them. However, he could not show this openly due to the fact that he held the position of the Supreme Commander of the Slovenian armed forces, or rather, he represented the Supreme Commander – which was the Presidency and not just the President. In fact, even Kučan during the preparations for independence created a position of ambiguous language. On one hand, he displayed a very reserved attitude towards the Slovenian military defence project, and on the other hand, he criticised the Demos government for the slow pace of preparations for independence. According to Danilo Slivnik’s testimony, in a conversation with one of the Belgrade officials about independence, Kučan “slipped” by saying that nothing would come out of it anyway. He might have had in mind a secret scenario, whereby just before independence, with the demand for the dismissal of the Chief State Prosecutor Anton Drobnič, they would convince some members of the Demos government to overthrow it, thereby causing the independence project to fail or leading only to a farcical independence. The Yugoslav Prime Minister Ante Marković, who was in constant contact with the opposition parties at the time, seems to have also taken this scenario into account. This scenario did not materialise immediately, but it began to unfold later. The Slovenian Democratic Alliance collapsed in the autumn, and shortly after that, Demos dissolved as well. The government finally fell in the spring of 1992. However, this was not enough. Operation “Ščuka” resulted in the removal of Minister Janša two years after the fall of the independence government. Nevertheless, the plan to completely remove Janša from politics failed. It is important to note that the former aggressor’s special forces (which had de facto attacked Slovenia as early as May 1990 with the disarming of the Territorial Defence) played a significant, albeit not overt, role in this conspiracy, tormenting Slovenia for the next 25 years.
This brief overview of Slovenia’s recent political history is essential for understanding the current political situation. The fact is that Prime Minister Robert Golob has found himself in a rather unenviable position. As a crisis manager, he relies on advice from those on the opposite side of the political spectrum, yet he is still playing the role of a useful idiot for the transition-era predators. While he used to send Janša into political retirement and vocally discussed alleged fascism not long ago, this time he nodded along to Janša’s points. It was clear that Golob was in a serious dilemma, realising that he was also being observed by Milan Kučan, who had been spewing fire and brimstone towards the SDS just a few days before. If Golob has any shred of common sense – and I believe he does, despite everything – he had to admit at least one thing: the previous government initiated a project to reduce bureaucracy, which is a sore point in Slovenian development. However, the current government obstructed this “de-bureaucratisation” due to a kind of cultural revolution in its attitude towards the previous administration. Thus, Golob is now in a “clearing” situation, which means publicly acknowledging something that the other side has been pointing out for a long time. On the other hand, he must deliver a rejection to those who put him in power. This mainly refers to Kučan, who brutally opposed any attempts at cooperation between the government and the opposition a week ago, hoping that the SDS opposition would radicalise again. However, contrary to his expectations, this did not happen. The offered hand of cooperation from the opposition was not withdrawn. Here, public opinion pragmatism did not play a significant role. The leader of SDS is aware that even within his party, there is considerable scepticism towards cooperation due to past disappointments. However, this is a principled policy that SDS has demonstrated in the past, such as during the Partnership for Development initiative in the first Janša government. Therefore, SDS is open to cooperation, but not naïve about it.
This also naturally raises the question about the myth of NSi being the “more constructive” part of the opposition, while SDS is considered “radical” and uncompromising. It has now become evident that this is not necessarily the case, and the constructive stance actually comes down to nuances that determine whether it is a principled position or simply opportunism driven by hidden agendas. As it is known, in Kučan’s aforementioned attack on SDS, he once again resurrected his two-decade-old idea of a “noble conservative party”. He did not forget to simultaneously criticise Anže Logar, implying to the public not to trust platforms that are not under the control of the former head of the Communist Party and suggesting that when talking about his “noble conservatives”, he was not referring to Logar, but someone else. Through this, the former party leader hinted between the lines that he is counting on NSi’s role, which coincides with unofficial information that NSi might even become a “replacement” member of the government coalition if the Levica were to exit due to internal radicalisation. However, a significant problem exists: the majority of NSi’s membership and voters would find such manoeuvres very hard to digest. Engaging in such political horse-trading would not bring any long-term benefits to NSi, likely only causing significant damage.
It is no surprise, then, that the political undercurrent is now seeking suitable interlocutors within NSi who can openly express their resistance to Janša (and conditionally to Golob, suggesting they are both a “disaster” for Slovenia) through mainstream media. This approach aims to convince the remaining NSi membership that this kind of politics is the correct course of action. Meanwhile, the media network is attempting to stir up discord within the centre-right side over alleged “espionage by SDS on Slovenian bishops”. While it seemed in July that this perfidious operation might succeed, the floods have turned many things upside down. Now it is SDS that has offered cooperation not only to the government but to all those willing to provide assistance to flood victims. Janša, without being fully aware, has taken the primary spot in the media, where NSi previously seemed to hold a monopoly. Thus, rumours of increased nervousness among the political masterminds this week may be credible, and their “noble-conservative useful idiots” are attacking more fiercely as a result. If Golob obeys the political masterminds and rejects SDS’s offer of cooperation, his political story will come to an end in no more than three months. If he acts to the contrary, the masterminds will try to replace him with a “new face”. In short, we are witnessing a situation where the ruling “liberalism” has become a victim of the well-known lethal combination of underground politics and personal egoism. But what is worse is the rampage of the mastermind who seems to have lost both reason and patience due to the floods. This indicates that these days, things are likely quite tumultuous in Murgle.