By: Dr Matevž Tomšič
The preliminary parliamentary elections in France, called by President Emmanuel Macron due to his party’s significant defeat in this year’s European Parliament elections, demonstrated how the fight against one extreme can lead to the victory of another.
The events were indeed full of twists and turns. Initially, it seemed that the far-right party National Rally was heading for a historic success, having won the first round of elections; however, in the second round, there was a surprising turn of events as the left-wing coalition named the New People’s Front ended up with the most seats. The winner of the first round found itself in third place, behind Macron’s liberal coalition Together. Far behind all of them were the centre-right Republicans, who in recent years have become a relatively marginal political force.
In progressive circles, the election results brought relief. Even enthusiasm. We heard how democratic and freedom-loving France rejected populism and backwardness, how the republican political forces prevented the far right from coming to power, which is – of course – authoritarian, xenophobic, and anti-European. Things were set right!
However, it is (again!) worth noting the double standards in determining who is “extreme” and who is not. If the National Rally is consistently labelled as such, it is often overlooked that the victorious New People’s Front also includes very radical elements. Among them are communists (yes, they still exist in France under that name), and primarily the party Unsubmissive France, which has the most deputies within the coalition. This party is led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a far-leftist who advocates for the dismantling of capitalism, has a rich history of anti-Semitic statements, and is a sympathiser of various dictators, from Vladimir Putin to Bashar al-Assad. Regarding some issues, especially the war in Ukraine, he holds similar positions to his great rival, far-right Marine Le Pen, as he opposes military aid to Ukraine (while in 2014 he even welcomed Russia’s annexation of Crimea).
The assessments of the electoral triumph of the French left should also be taken with reservations. The most parliamentary seats were won due to the peculiarities of the two-round majority system in place in France, as well as the political manoeuvres it allows. The National Rally received about three million more votes than the entire left. If we add the votes that went to the Republicans, we can conclude that the right was voted for by significantly more French people than the left.
In reality, the left’s victory was enabled by the centrist liberals gathered around President Macron. By withdrawing some of their candidates from the race, they effectively formed a coalition with the leftists – even with quite extreme ones. Now Mélenchon and his like expect to take power. And they are not moderate by any means compared to Le Pen and her company. Perhaps the current president is counting on being able to maintain his role as the key political decision-maker in a fragmented and highly polarised parliament. However, this predicts a period of high political instability, and it is quite likely that new preliminary elections will be held in a year or two.
The political power dynamics in the new French parliament do not reflect the actual social climate in the country. The greater strength of the left is largely a result of electoral arithmetic rather than an actual increase in voter support. It is also hard to believe that any potential left-wing government will be able to successfully tackle the challenges facing France (and Europe). Some of the most pressing problems, such as excessive immigration from the third world, have been brought about by policies advocated by the modern (not just French) left.
