By: Dr Matevž Tomšič
With the victory in the referendum on the law regarding special pensions for distinguished artists, the right-wing political bloc led by the SDS undeniably achieved a win. It was largely a moral or symbolic victory, but a victory, nonetheless. If nothing else, it demonstrated that at least a partial mobilisation of their own voters is possible.
This likely will not lead to the fall of the government, even though Janez Janša immediately called for its resignation after the announcement of the referendum results. The current ruling coalition still holds (for now) a solid parliamentary majority, although polling projections are not looking good for at least two of the three coalition parties. Therefore, calling early elections would pose a significant risk.
Elections, then, are not as close as some might hope. It is certainly too early for the political right to begin celebrating or even imagining that they have the next parliamentary elections “in the bag” based on the outcome of the recent referendum. That result was an expression of public dissatisfaction with Golob’s government, but it does not automatically translate into support for the (right-wing) opposition. Moreover, many voters stayed home, and it is difficult to determine their electoral preferences.
From the perspective of right-wing electoral success, persistent tensions and conflicts among the parties on this side of the political spectrum are a problem. Thus, even at a moment of triumph – shortly after the referendum results were announced – tensions flared between SDS and NSi. The latter, once again (for who knows how many times), rushed to declare that they would not join a government led by Janša. In response, the SDS reacted with predictable frustration, even calling on NSi supporters to join their own party.
Both reactions were excessive. Claiming that a party will not participate in an ideologically aligned government just because it disapproves of the larger sister party’s leader undermines the positive momentum gained through the referendum victory. Additionally, it plays naively into the hands of the left and its media allies, who seek division on the right – hence the constant provocations, especially before each election, about who “will not go into coalition with Janša.” At the same time, it is pure illusion to believe that the largest right-wing party can win the elections on its own. It simply cannot. Its reach is limited. Therefore, it needs allies – not only NSi, but others as well.
For the right to win the next elections and form a stable government afterward, it will need to attract as broad a base of voters as possible. Yes, that sounds obvious – almost banal – but it is far from easy to achieve. The left enjoys certain built-in advantages, especially the strong support of mainstream media. Therefore, the right will need to break through many prejudices and stereotypes, as well as the open manipulations these media propagate. It will be particularly important for the right to “diversify its political offering”. This means being able to convince people with different worldviews – from traditional conservatives to centrist liberals. No existing party can do this alone. In addition to the parliamentary parties (SDS, NSi, and the Democrats), non-parliamentary ones (SLS, Fokus, and others) will also need to contribute.
What is needed is the right combination of unity and diversity. The political right must convincingly present itself as a credible alternative to the currently ruling left. Some might sarcastically say that this should not be difficult, given all the blunders, scandals, and failures of Golob’s government. But it cannot be ruled out that, before the elections, a new “face” will emerge to take up the left-wing agenda. Therefore, the opposition will need to be very persuasive in appealing to voters. And sophisticated, in the sense that its messaging should resonate with different generations, social groups, and regions. Cooperation will be essential – which does not mean uniformity.