By: Dr Vinko Gorenak
These days, my political prediction, which I made about a year ago, seems to be coming true. At the end of 2022 or the beginning of 2023, in an interview with Boris Tomašič on Nova24TV, I stated that Golob would not survive as the Prime Minister of the Republic of Slovenia until the new year of 2024. It appears that I was correct. The left-wing political forces that placed him in that position might have dismissed him earlier, but the floods delayed the process of his departure. Nevertheless, it seems that my prediction, made about a year ago, is coming to pass.
If the supreme leader of the coalition had performed his duties at least somewhat average or even below average, the centres of the left political background, once referred to as the “uncles from the shadows”, would not have decided to replace him. However, they have already decided that he must be replaced because both domestically and internationally, he is causing harm and no benefit to Slovenia and themselves. The lies for cover-up, political interference in the work of independent bodies such as the police, hasty adoption of incorrect laws, and their hasty amendments have not gone unnoticed, not only by the centres of political power from the background but also by non-governmental organisations that helped him come to power. Particularly left-wing media which not only assisted him in coming to power but also defended him to the last drop of blood. However, it seems that blood has now run out.
Today, the decision of the centres of left political power from the background is clear. Golob must leave, and they are looking for his successor, who will govern until the elections in 2026. The evidence for this can be found in the reports of left-wing media, the positions of non-governmental organisations, and the crowning proof is the Commission for the Prevention of Corruption (CPC). About a year ago, the CPC received a report from Tatjana Bobnar about the political interference of the supreme leader of the coalition in police personnel procedures. Please note that they received the report a year ago, and only now have they started proceedings against Golob. All the nice words from the deputy president of the CPC, David Lapornik, about the independent work of the CPC, mock democracy, and nothing else. They have been doing this from the very beginning, from the establishment of the CPC. I practically experienced this in December 2012 when, exactly one day before my interpellation, they wrote a report that was extremely biased and unfair to me as the interior minister. They published it the day before my defence in the National Assembly (this is not about the current composition of the CPC leadership). I could not even respond to their pamphlet. What a coincidence, naïve people would say then and now.
However, let’s turn to the supreme leader of the coalition. Golob is not Šarec. In 2020, Šarec naively thought (apparently advised by Damir Črnčec, then his advisor and now the State Secretary at the Ministry of Defence with significant influence) that if he resigned and pointed fingers at coalition partners, it would lead to preliminary elections, which he believed he would win. This is what the polls indicated as well. However, this is a catastrophic mistake; our parliamentary system does not work that way. There is a relatively long path to preliminary elections, as we experienced in 2000 with the appointment of the Bajuk government. Within the same composition of the National Assembly, a new majority can be formed at any time, choosing a new prime minister and a new government. This happened after Šarec’s resignation in 2020, leading to the formation of the third Janša government.
At this point, the situation is entirely different from Šarec’s “throwing in the towel” in 2020. Golob is not Šarec and fully understands the situation before him. He will not repeat Šarec’s mistake. His resignation would create the possibility of forming a new coalition majority. However, here lies the problem. Golob has 41 parliamentary votes, with allegedly 21 coming from the ranks of Gen-I and being immensely loyal to Golob, unlikely to betray him. If we add to this equation the votes of SD and Levica, as well as NSi, which would not cooperate with Janša, we have a deadlock. Who can gather 46 votes? That is the million-dollar question.
Adding Golob’s reliable 21 votes from Gen-I to the 7 MPs from the SD and 5 MPs from Levica brings us to a total of 33. If we add another 8 MPs (as mentioned by Janez Pogorelec at least indirectly on the X network), we only reach the number 41. Thus, not even two MPs of nationality would be a solution for a potential new prime minister.
Therefore, the opposition, due to which the incompetent leader of the coalition might extend his mandate, but not until 2026. Perhaps even until the elections to the European Parliament, for which, in an extreme case, the left political background might extend his mandate and honourably launch him into Brussels. Meanwhile, convincing the domestic public that Golob has gone to Brussels and that this is the reason why we need a new leader of the coalition, who will be called something else but will have the same content. To be continued.
