By: Dr Metod Berlec
The post‑election period is not only a time for forming coalitions, but above all a moment of realising that the state of Slovenia’s public finances has deteriorated alarmingly due to the “pay reform”, socialist‑style profligacy, and the distribution of pre‑election sweeteners.
As recently as October 2025, the outgoing prime minister and president of the Freedom Movement, Robert Golob, was loudly insisting that the budget deficit would “not exceed three percent of GDP” in the future. And even right before the election he continued to bluff, claiming that throughout the entire term they had ensured fiscal sustainability. Finance Minister Klemen Boštjančič made similar assertions. Before the 22 March election he even stated: “Public finances are stable, Slovenia maintains a high credit rating and financial discipline.” Well, last week, after warnings from the Fiscal Council that public finances are “not sustainable without measures” and that a “prudent fiscal policy” is needed, he admitted that the figures show Slovenia is above the EU average in expenditure growth. “If nothing changes, the deficit could rise to 3.4 percent of GDP.” But that is not all. In the event of a shock lasting through this year and next, and without specific fiscal policy measures to mitigate the crisis, the deficit could reach five percent of GDP by 2028, the Fiscal Council warned. In short, a worrying situation both for the next government and for the country as a whole.
Consequently, when he was unable to form a new post‑election coalition, Golob surprised many by declaring: “We look forward to working in the opposition.” SDS president Janez Janša responded by dryly noting that there was a grain of truth in that statement. “Despite record‑high taxes and the holes they have created in public finances, I believe they are indeed looking forward to working in the opposition, while leaving the problem‑solving to others.” Janša therefore announced on Friday, in a rather reserved tone, that the first steps toward forming a new coalition would be taken after the National Assembly considers their proposal to amend the Government Act (reducing the number of ministries from 19 to 14). If the law is adopted, they will send supporting parties the starting points for coalition negotiations. And if the starting points for the coalition agreement are harmonised, they will proceed to align sectoral programmes for the next four years. “Only once this is harmonised, signed, and approved by the bodies of the parties willing to cooperate will the coordination of the composition of the new government take place.”
In any case, the situation is far from rosy. Slovenia’s financial position is deteriorating by the day due to the irresponsible conduct of Golob’s government (including additional hiring in ministries), and the coalition arithmetic is such that governing will be anything but easy if a centre‑right government is formed. At the same time, the entrenched networks of the old system will not remain idle. They will do everything they can to make governing difficult for any potential centre‑right administration. It is also true that, if a new centre‑right government is formed, internal upheavals within the transitional left can be expected. A gradual disintegration of Golob’s Freedom Movement is likely. The notorious Urška Klakočar Zupančič has already left…