By: Spletni časopis
The Fiscal Council reveals chilling statistics in its report: in 2025, the deficit under Robert Golob’s government almost tripled.
While they were assuring us of sustainability, expenditures doubled, and all reserves from the past were used up. If the “severe scenario” of geopolitical risks materialises, the budget hole will deepen to a catastrophic 5 percent of GDP by 2028. Public‑finance developments in 2025 moved further away from achieving fiscal sustainability due to exceptionally high expenditure growth, the Fiscal Council warned in its assessment of the draft 2026 Annual Progress Report. Without measures, the country could find itself in serious trouble. By 2028, the deficit will be cumulatively 3 billion euros higher than the commitments the state made in its medium‑term plan.
The Fiscal Council also warns against the measures proposed by the centrist trio, which, after the dramatic increase in spending by Svoboda, SD, and Levica, would slightly reduce the tax burden, resulting in lower revenues. Without compensatory measures, this would structurally increase the deficit by an additional 900 million euros, or by more than 1 percentage point of GDP annually, they wrote. They illustrated the situation graphically as follows:
Key points from the assessment of the draft 2026 Annual Progress Report:
- Public‑finance developments in 2025 moved further away from achieving fiscal sustainability due to exceptionally high expenditure growth. The cumulative deviation from the commitments in the medium‑term fiscal‑structural plan remained within the allowed range only because of the manoeuvring space created in 2024.
- According to projections by the Fiscal Council and the Ministry of Finance, the cumulative deviation of net expenditures will already exceed the allowed level this year. At the same time, they estimate that further deviation could even double by the end of the current plan in 2028. The room for fiscal policy action, including addressing the consequences of shocks, is therefore quite limited despite the adoption of the pension reform.
- It is necessary to avoid measures that would further worsen the state of public finances. Otherwise, the risks to fiscal sustainability will increase even more, given the current efficiency of public spending. According to the Fiscal Council, the adoption of the Intervention Measures for the Development of Slovenia Act would, without compensatory measures, structurally increase the deficit by an additional 900 million euros, or by more than 1 percentage point of GDP annually.