By: Vida Kocjan
In the years following the major global health crisis (COVID‑19), Slovenia was among the most stable and successful economies in the EU. However, the recent years under Golob’s government highlight the need for structural reforms, namely tax relief on labour, productivity, and investment, which is also emphasised by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GZS), the Economic Circle, and international institutions. Slovenia is, in fact, falling behind in its development.
Taxes and social contributions have increased by 3.2 percentage points under Golob, which is why Slovenia needs a decisive development‑oriented and competitive economic policy, not what we have today.
Incorrect government policies
The economic situation in Slovenia in 2025 was relatively weak compared with long‑term averages and with expectations at the beginning of the year. Economic growth (GDP) was lower than forecast in spring 2025.
In 2025, economic activity was supported by construction and household consumption, but manufacturing output and exports were weaker. The public sector has surpassed manufacturing in the number of employees, indicating an imbalance between the private and public sectors. The Fiscal Council warns that Slovenia’s public debt ratio is in the upper half of the EU (10th place out of 27), although the liquidity buffer remains a risk‑mitigating factor. Among the challenges or factors hindering performance are low productivity growth, labour shortages, geopolitical uncertainties, and high energy prices, which slow industrial development. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of Slovenia warn that low productivity will limit GDP growth.
In the past 12 months, the economy has lost 7,360 jobs, while the public sector has gained 4,308 new positions, indicating an imbalance and a potential crisis.
Warnings from business leaders and expectations
In recent weeks, business leaders have issued strong warnings, especially regarding government measures that increase the burden on companies.
There is sharp criticism over the increase of the minimum wage to €1,482 gross (15.97 percent higher than last year), which will raise employer costs by just over 11 percent. This refers to the first gross amount; the second gross amount, which is the employer’s final cost, will be around €1,730. This is not being discussed publicly. Allowances (holiday bonuses and similar) will also rise. The Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia (GZS) warns that this places additional pressure on companies, as there is no tax relief, which may lead to fewer investments, business closures, and lower competitiveness. Additional risks stem from instability (changes in taxation, bureaucracy), high energy prices, and geopolitical conditions (e.g., U.S. tariffs, the situation in Germany).
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has lowered its forecast for Slovenia’s economic growth. Entrepreneurs warn of a crisis: fewer investments, fewer foreign direct investments, and a mass closure of sole‑proprietor statuses. The reasons for the latter are inadequate tax policy and the five‑year restriction on reopening. Unemployment is rising – from 3.5 to 5 percent in the past year.”
Harmful pre‑election populism
Janez Janša, president of SDS, former multiple‑term prime minister, and the most likely candidate for forming the next government, has repeatedly stated that Golob’s government is leading Slovenia into a serious economic and social crisis through anti‑reform measures. He includes the increase in the minimum wage among these measures, noting that the government failed to introduce tax relief. Janša emphasises that this is pre‑election populism that imposes additional costs on companies, while the state collects a large share of the increase through higher contributions and taxes.
Strong criticism from the business sector
The current economic policies of Robert Golob’s government are also heavily criticised by the Economic Circle, an informal alliance of 17 key economic, business, and agricultural organisations in Slovenia. They represent a wide range of companies and industries. Their criticism focuses particularly on the burden placed on companies, the lack of predictability, and the absence of a development‑oriented approach.
The Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia (GZS) has calculated that the total labour burden (taxes and contributions) increased by 3.2 percentage points between 2023 and 2026. This means that the effective tax burden on wages (including taxes and social contributions paid by employers and employees) has risen significantly. GZS stresses that this is the largest increase in recent years and that Slovenia stands out among EU countries with one of the highest rises in the tax burden (according to Eurostat and other sources).
Regarding the minimum wage, they warn that without these additional burdens, it would already exceed €1,000 in 2026 if the gross amount were adjusted only for inflation. Due to new burdens (the long‑term care contribution, changes in the tax wedge, etc.), the net minimum wage for 2025 is set at €930, and in January 2026 it would fall to only €887 if there were no additional increase in the gross minimum wage. As a result, an employee on the minimum wage lost around €2,100 in total between 2023 and 2026.
This increase is dangerous and anti‑competitive, placing additional pressure on companies and leading to fewer investments, higher prices, potential layoffs, and the relocation of businesses.
Instead of additional burdens on companies, they call for tax relief on labour (lower contributions, lower payroll taxes, etc.), less bureaucracy, and a stable environment.”
Critical Fiscal Council
The Fiscal Council is also critical, focusing primarily on public finances and the state budget. In its January Monthly Information report, it wrote that the state budget deficit (excluding intervention measures) increased significantly in 2025 compared with the previous year. State budget expenditures (excluding intervention measures) rose by 15 percent, which is five times more than the year before. The growth in expenditures was broad‑based, covering most areas (wages, transfers, investments, etc.).
Real current spending of the entire general government sector increased for the second consecutive year at a pace significantly faster than the estimated long‑term sustainable growth of the economy’s potential. This indicates a misalignment with the long‑term sustainability of public finances.
Furthermore, Slovenia ranks in the upper half of the EU in terms of public debt share (10th out of 27 countries).
Based on its findings, the Fiscal Council wrote that economic policymakers should refrain from encouraging expectations of further state interventions in the economy (implicitly a criticism of additional “spending” measures before the elections).
The Fiscal Council warns of the risk of excessive growth in public spending at a time when the economy is growing weakly (GDP growth for 2025 was estimated at around 0.8–1.0 percent). It emphasises the need for more moderate expenditure growth and adherence to fiscal rules to maintain medium‑ and long‑term sustainability of public finances.
Janša: “Golob’s government is leading Slovenia into a serious economic and social crisis with anti‑reform measures”
Janez Janša, president of SDS: “Golob’s government is leading Slovenia into a serious economic and social crisis with anti‑reform measures.”
Blaž Cvar, Chamber of Craft and Small Business of Slovenia: “Under this government, we cannot plan even three months ahead. Foreign partners cannot believe what we are dealing with.”
GZS: “In 2026, Slovenia needs a decisive development‑oriented and competitive economic policy to support business growth and create prosperity for all. The economy and companies are often portrayed by politics as harmful to workers and the state, but it is precisely the economy that creates prosperity.”
Expectations of SDS for 2026 and after the elections
The main economic and business‑related promises of SDS before the elections:
- The party promises to abolish or significantly reduce certain taxes (e.g., the payroll tax or potential new levies), which in its view would allow higher net wages without additional burdens on employers.
- After the elections (22 March 2026), they aim to ‘turn off the taps’ of unnecessary spending (e.g., funding of NGOs they view as ideologically linked to the left), reduce the public sector, and encourage private investment.
- SDS positions itself as a defender of the free market, a predictable business environment, and strong support for entrepreneurship – in contrast to what it describes as the current government’s ‘socialist’ measures.
- The party builds its campaign around the slogan ‘Slovenia for Slovenians,’ advocating for individual dignity and a strong right‑leaning majority (a coalition of at most two parties) to enable radical reforms.