By: Dr. Andrej Fink
The election is over, and the results are supposedly clear (unless some weird calculation shows up again). Two weeks after the election holiday of democracy, the picture of the future government shines with relative clarity. All indications are that we will have the Šarec II government. We really did not expect that. Although this sounds extremely strange, the winner’s statements are clear. Despite many votes, the most likely Prime Minister, Robert Golob, cannot form a government on his own and will therefore need the help of the only two extremely impoverished parties, or at least one that remains in parliament. He is supposed to be able to form a government with them. It is outrageous, however, that he will invite people from parties that have catastrophically stayed on the road and out of the parliamentary game to the government. This is probably the unicum in the history of democracy. However, the name of the government as Šarec II is justified, as it will have the same political colours and names as in the failed Šarec I government. This already says something about the future.
The moves are now on the winning side. Apparently, the election results were not expected on their part either. Everyone is unpleasantly surprised. All the left parties lost catastrophically at the expense of the Gibanje Svoboda party, which came as a terrible blow to them. The party won at the expense of the left parties and thus remained almost alone in the arena. And this victory is only in the removal of Janša’s government and not in the winning proposal or his own penetration. Its own power is nowhere to be found. The removal of Janez Janša’s government was achieved, but only “accidentally”, because the Povežimo Slovenijo movement did not cross the threshold and thus ran out of one partner for a possible coalition. Since the Gibanje Svoboda party does not have its own power, it is imperative to seek help elsewhere. Where? On the street, among cyclists and various degraders in the last two years, in obscure associations and organisations of the so-called civil society, which have already come to the fore as winners. However, this is not a political capital that a serious politician in the EU can be proud of, let alone rely on.
Golob voters are also not a solid pillar for the future. If they uncritically let themselves be fooled by a stranger and an unknown movement and voted for him in such large numbers, they can also leave him for the same reasons. These are not voters with deeper arguments. This is an unstable basis for the future government. These voters were therefore the first to be surprised at what they all created together. They did not have such (so much) purpose. They voted for Golob because “I cannot stand Janša and I do not like him”, which was their main argument. Now, however, they were frightened by the excessive power they had given to the newcomer Golob, with whom they had jumped into the unknown. To justify this majority for themselves, they have already started looking at the election promises, saying, I voted for something more. But these promises are twofold: they help on election day, but the credit obtained in this way must be repaid immediately or at least this intention must be made clear enough at the outset. If the initial signals are already vague, this is not good for voters and for further electoral support. In most cases, a good signal is the announcement of the appointment of an excellent and well-known specialist minister. Anything that is not that, is bad.
Unfortunately, we do not find any outstanding personalities in the names of the ministers who are circulating these days, who would have proven themselves in their places as successful rulers of the country in the past. Not to mention a whole series of new MPs without any experience, who are supposedly not in the National Assembly to control the work of the government on behalf of the people, but only to raise their hands. At the very least, we are looking, at least among ministers, for people with a well-established practice on the European executive floor and in international federations. Even the practice in the European Parliament is not enough for this.
And another interesting thing this time. The winner is not only called “Gibanje” (“Movement”) but also acts as a movement. A movement, however, is known to always be an association of different forces, each with its own sometimes very different idea, but they come together for some common purpose or, at best, plan. Each current in motion constantly retains its original identity, which does not merge with others in amalgam (at least not soon). This means that there is always a danger of disintegration in a movement once the main common goal has been achieved.
For now, however, it would be advisable to wait and “sit down in front of the house” to see what will come our way in the near future.