By: Petra Škrinjar
On Monday, the 12th of February 2022, Russia recognised the independence of the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk and immediately sent its “peacekeeping forces” there. And on Thursday, the 24th of February 2022, it launched a military invasion into Ukraine – a full offensive from the east, north, and south. In one week, this unprovoked attack on a sovereign democracy has claimed hundreds of lives among Ukrainian soldiers and civilians – men, women and children.
The footage coming from Ukraine shows actions that cannot be justified by anything: in one of the Russian attacks, a family with children was burned in their car; in another, the same fate befell an elderly couple. We have seen civilians running in all directions on the road in a panic, trying to avoid Russian projectiles; we have seen children with cancer and newborns being hidden in the basements of hospitals while sirens sound outside. We have seen pregnant women give birth in the middle of the subway in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. Many Russian soldiers are also dying – all because of dictator Putin’s megalomania and paranoia. This includes young people who have been “brainwashed” by the Russian indoctrination, as well as those who were lied to about only attending “military training.
Virtually all of the democratic Western public immediately strongly condemned Russia’s military aggression; however, it was slower in taking concrete action. Some countries wanted Russia to be denied access to the SWIFT payment system immediately, while others needed a few more days to think about this measure and then decide on it. Some quickly adopted a ban of Russian planes from their airspace, while others, again, decided to wait a while. Some soon backed additional tough economic sanctions against Russia, while others needed a couple more days and, unfortunately, a few more clips of civilians being killed) to decide. Some decided to send additional weapons to the Ukrainians immediately so that they could defend themselves, while others did not even allow the transport of weapons through their territory.
Some remarkable steps have also been made, as well as changes of attitudes that have been in place for decades, with the sole purpose of helping Ukraine and opposing Putin. Germany made an admirable turn after its initial hesitation, and at the previous Sunday’s extraordinary session, the chancellor announced a dramatic increase in the defence budget and the sending of military equipment to Ukraine. Immediately after the start of the war, Poland opened its doors to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees, and it continues to offer its hospitality to them even today when the number of refugees in the country is approaching half a million. After a week of the war, the European Union is united like never before. The long-forgotten unity of NATO has also been awakened, as has the solidarity of all democratic world powers – from Australia, Japan, New Zealand to South Korea and Taiwan…
Putin still has his goal
However, so far, the sanctions have not deterred Putin from his original plan – not even by a millimetre. Through his propaganda machine, he continues to serve more lies to the Russian population about how he is fighting for the “denazification” of a country whose democratically elected president is actually of Jewish descent. Russian stock exchanges have not opened since the sanctions were imposed. It will take weeks to see the real impact of the Western sanctions – but in the meantime, Ukraine might cease to exist. The news is getting worse day by day. Parts of Ukrainian cities are starting to look more and more like Aleppo or Vukovar – next to the destroyed residential buildings, there are bloodied corpses of dead Ukrainians lying on the roads, and we have also seen the complete destruction of bridges, railways, roads, and other infrastructure.
Slovenians can be proud of our response
In all this chaos, Slovenians can be proud of our response. Slovenia is not a big country with great military power, but we can safely say that we have helped Ukraine as much or even more than any “strong” European country. On Wednesday, the 23rd of February (so even before the invasion began), a letter was sent from Ljubljana to the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell. In it, the first signatory, Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša, and the second-signed Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki proposed that the EU opens a way for Ukraine to gain membership in the Union. Five days later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky formally applied for EU membership, and the next day, the European Parliament, in its resolution, expressed its unanimous support for Ukraine’s rapprochements to the European Union. With his proposal, the Slovenian Prime Minister changed the course of European history in just six days. The European political space was initially surprised by the boldness and determination of Janša’s proposal, as it did not follow the established bureaucratic procedures, but it soon turned out that the proposal was more than appropriate.
All of this is still not enough
Despite all the unity of the Western world, we still have not done enough. Dozens of innocent people are dying every day on the threshold of the European Union. This is a matter of life and death. Ukraine is a country that is the target of extreme violence, just because it dared to embark on the path of democracy with the Maidan revolution in 2014, because it demanded that its doors remain open to the European Union, despite Putin’s opposition.
Janša’s proposals
Despite the fact that the Western world is shocked by Putin’s attack on Ukraine, almost all politicians are extremely cautious, as we are dealing with an autocrat who has nuclear weapons at his disposal. And in this sense, Janša’s proposals stand out, as he is an exceptional strategist and has the courage to propose solutions that others do not dare. Putin is always one step ahead of Europe: by the time we have sent the largest stockpiles of weapons to Ukraine, the first Ukrainian city had already fallen. How will all these weapons benefit Ukraine after it, for example, loses the capital, the president, the government…? Therefore, despite calls for caution, I continue to support Janša’s proposals: NATO must establish a no-fly zone in Ukraine; the path to EU membership must also be opened to Georgia and Moldova, as well as to the countries of the Western Balkans. After all, if Ukraine falls, wouldn’t it pay off for Putin’s army to continue to Moldova if they were already on its border? In addition, Moldova has a total of 6,000 troops, and the Belarusian autocrat Lukashenko showed a military map at one of his meetings, where the plan to attack Moldova is clearly outlined.
Putin’s logic of proportionality does not work
In the months leading up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Western world took a “soft approach,” as it wanted to give Putin as few reasons as possible to attack. However, he still attacked Ukraine and explained the invasion to the local population as a response to “excessive pressure” from NATO. It is even reported that the vast majority of the Russian population blames the West for the invasion. So, Putin’s logic of proportionality does not work. If we are kind to him, he is not less dangerous, but more. As history has shown us many times, the soft approach used with autocrats is often counter-productive. If we fear Putin’s power and let him trample on democratic values with military force and destroy the lives of our neighbours because we are afraid of getting involved in the war, all of us in the democratic Western world will pay an even higher price in the future. With the invasion of Ukraine, Putin has crossed the line, and it makes more sense to try and stop him in Ukraine than to do it later, in Moldova, or even Poland or the Baltic states. If we want to ensure European and global security and stability and stop the rise of autocrats, we must stop the attack now – otherwise, we can expect autocratic interventions elsewhere in the world, for example, in Taiwan, in addition to new conflicts in the Balkans and elsewhere.
Many analysts warn that a no-fly zone in Ukraine would pose a direct conflict between NATO and Russia and thus a huge risk. But to sum up Garry Kasparov’s message: “The Western world has not resisted Putin in any of the military interventions in recent decades – not in Moldova, not in Georgia, Donbas or Crimea. Are we any safer now?”
The author of the column is Petra Škrinjar, assistant to MEP Dr Milan Zver.